Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

While outside market pressures are not distinctly bearish this morning, the dollar is near a four-day upside breakout and treasury yields are drifting higher.

So far this week, the primary focus of the gold and silver trade has been on bond yields, with less sensitivity to the dollar.

Nonetheless, strength in the dollar following positive US scheduled data yesterday and renewed fears of a European recession indirectly pressured gold yesterday...[MORE]

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With a two-day high-to-low swing in December gold of $38 the gold trade appears to be indecisive with respect to the near-term trend.

However, outside market action from the dollar and treasuries has flipped positive which has served to temper long liquidation from the delay of the Israeli ground offensive.

Apparently, the IDF has settled on continued bombardment against suspected Hamas strongholds perhaps because of the threat of retaliation from several Arab terrorist groups...[MORE]

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Clearly, with the upside breakout extension overnight headlines in the Middle East continue to fuel both speculative and flight-to-quality buying of gold and to a lesser degree silver.

Unfortunately for the bull camp gold and silver ETF instruments continue to see outflows, with the outflows from silver instruments this week significant with year-to-date sales of 34.5 million ounces and yesterday the seventh straight daily outflow of silver ETF holdings.

In retrospect, with gold rallying in the face of an upside breakout in US treasury yields yesterday, the flight-to-quality theme is clearly dominating the trade and that should continue to lift gold, especially with expectations of Israeli troops moving into Gaza for what the media labels as a "ground war"...[MORE]

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With a risk-off environment in equities and commodities overnight gold and silver overnight have paused/retrenched after significant gains.

However, the initial landscape today favors further corrective action as US treasury yields have broken out to the upside perhaps in anticipation of today's US Federal Reserve Chairman speech which many expect to reiterate the "higher for longer" mantra.

On the other hand, the Fed has recently expressed concern for the drag on the economy from surging long-term rates and the Chairman might address that situation today...[MORE]

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While we suspect the bombing of a hospital in Gaza has sparked the sharp upside extensions in gold and silver prices today, it is also possible that a measure of improved physical demand hope from stronger-than-expected Chinese data is adding to the bullish mix today.

While not a definitive supportive element in the early going, the dollar is poised just above a downside breakout point on the charts and could fail if estimates for US building permits match or come in below estimates.

However, with crude oil prices jumping by more than $2.00 overnight, fear of a broadening of the conflict in the Middle East creates the potential for a large flight to quality event and rekindles fear of inflation potential inspired by surging energy prices...[MORE]

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While outside market moves are not significant, gold is posting minimal gains despite strength in the dollar and weakness in treasury prices!

However, some international traders see risk premiums falling with the US presidential visit to Gaza with the idea that diplomatic efforts could calm the situation.

Unfortunately for the bull camp global economic activity is showing signs of slowing with global manufacturing softening and demand for industrial metals declining and that casts a shadow over precious metal markets...[MORE]

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What goes up aggressively can correct aggressively, which is more the case in gold early today than in silver.

Clearly, the markets are not supported by weekend developments in Gaza, and with a thin US economic report slate today, the primary focus will likely be on an afternoon speech from the Feds Harker.

While the US intentions to contain the Middle East crisis are laudable, many times those types of efforts prove fruitless...[MORE]

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While the dollar index overnight did not show a definitive downside extension, the charts and Fed news favor the bear camp in the Dollar which in turn favors the bull camps in both gold and silver.

Apparently, the meeting minutes from the September Fed meeting produced concern among Fed members with the threat against growth rising and perhaps paralleling the risk of inflation.

In fact, most Fed members viewed the economic outlook as highly uncertain resulting in a consensus of proceeding carefully before raising rates again...[MORE]

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Gold and silver prices continue to rise as this week's early financial market trends have extended into another session with higher equities, a weaker dollar, and most importantly sharp declines in implied US treasury yields.

We mention strength in the equity markets as we have detected bullish sensitivity in gold and silver to positive economic developments recently as if a portion of the trade is anticipating improved physical and investment demand from improved global economic sentiment.

Not surprisingly, the bull camp should be emboldened by the extensions down in treasury yields and the dollar as that removes significant headwinds and could become a very significant bullish theme if that action continues...[MORE]

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Despite news that Country Garden failed to make an international debt payment overnight the US dollar forged a downside extension and posted the lowest trade since September 29th thereby underpinning gold around yesterday's highs.

Furthermore, uncertainty in the Middle East has fostered further short covering in US treasuries removing another outside market pressure from the gold and silver trade.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, tonight China will release its new loan tally for September, and with expectations calling for a significant jump over August, that news could lift the Chinese currency and in turn moderate Chinese domestic flight to quality buying of gold...[MORE]

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