Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

Fortunately for gold and silver, bearish influences from the dollar and treasuries abated at the end of last week. Still, unfortunately, adverse trend action in those markets has returned and is likely to keep gold and silver under liquidation watch.

In fact, this morning global markets were rife with concerns that interest rates were set to remain high for longer firming the dollar and undermining most physical commodities.

Therefore, further gold price retrenchment from treasury and dollar market action likely push December gold down to the September lows of $1,921 and potentially press silver back to first support of $23.36 in the December contract...[MORE]

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With the dollar bulls surviving and then thriving in the wake of a pause by the US #Fed and a downside breakout in US initial claims yesterday the uptrend in the dollar looks to expand.

Furthermore, given the bearish addition of a significant leap in US interest rates the path of least resistance in gold remains down.

However, the divergence between gold and silver makes us suspicious of the rally in silver which could result in a short sale opportunity if December silver reaches $24.25...[MORE]

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Surprisingly, the #gold market has remained lower this morning despite a softer-than-expected set of inflation readings from the UK. In our opinion, the data was not enough to discourage the Bank of England from hiking rates tomorrow, but the UK economy has created some doubt.

However, recently the gold market has been very sensitive to action in the #dollar, and with gold trading lower today with a setback in the dollar, the bull camp has stepped back.

Certainly, the aggressive recovery in the dollar yesterday has rattled some would-be buyers, especially if the US #Fed surprises and decides to hike today...[MORE]

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With the dollar showing signs of eroding the charts in both gold and silver continue to show signs of a slight revival.

Unfortunately for the bull camp investment interest in gold continues to wane with ETF holdings reduced for the 12th straight session, while silver investors bucked the trend with a purchase of 1.2 million ounces!

Apparently, the gold and silver trade is looking beyond the probable Bank of England rate hike tomorrow to the highly likely US Federal Reserve rate hike pause on Thursday...[MORE]

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While the dollar has not made a fresh high for the move since last Thursday (6-month high), the currency index remains near upside breakout territory, suggesting potential for a resumption of upside follow-through today.

With treasury yields also breaking out to the highest level since August 22nd overnight and sitting within one point of contract lows, renewed strength in the dollar should not be discounted.

In short, outside market forces continue to favor the bear camp in gold and silver with internal bullish fundamentals incapable of supporting prices or are simply completely absent...[MORE]

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In addition to a justified short-covering bounce from the oversold condition into yesterday's lows, gold and silver are drafting lift from better-than-expected Chinese economic news overnight.

Apparently, a portion of the gold and silver trade saw this week's US CPI and PPI readings as inflationary, and in turn traders in those markets raised their expectations for a US Fed hike. It should be noted that the inflationary signs in this week's key monthly US inflation reports were interpreted as dovish because excluding food and energy readings supposedly countervailed the headline gains.

However, we think the odds favor a pause although not as high as the CME Fed watch tool suggested this morning at 97%...[MORE]

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Despite slightly supportive early dollar action both gold and silver are tracking lower perhaps because of concern for the ECB rate decision early today. In the latest survey, the trade attaches a 63% probability of a 25-basis point rate hike by the ECB.

The action in the gold and silver markets yesterday should have been extremely discouraging for the bull camp as the markets dodged what appeared to be a very hot headline US CPI reading without rekindling fear of a US rate hike next week.

In fact, the CME Fed Watch tool before the report had a 93% probability the Fed would be on hold, with the probability of being on hold rising to 97% after the report was digested...[MORE]

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Today is likely to be a major junction for gold and silver prices with a prevailing bearish tilt likely to be facilitated by financial market action.

However, silver and gold prices could be "saved" with a softer-than-expected US CPI report as that would likely result in lower dollar action and declining treasury yields.

On the other hand, seeing a CPI reading above 0.4% should reignite the rally in the dollar and should lift treasury yields...[MORE]

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At least to start the Tuesday US trade, outside market influences of the dollar (the dollar did reject initial weakness) and US treasury rates narrowly favor the bull camp.

However, gold and silver have not embraced noted support from outside markets recently and that might be the result of residual global #inflation readings keeping a measure of rate hike prospects in place.

In fact, Spain overnight registered a hot +0.5% monthly wholesale price reading and there are concerns that tomorrow's US CPI report will match expectations of a gain of 0.5%...[MORE]

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