Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

Not surprisingly, gold and silver are benefiting from the uncertainty created by the attack on Israel by Hamas.

Fear of hostilities throughout the Middle East usually results in a knee-jerk reaction rally in gold, especially with respect to events involving Iran.

However, many gold traders are rightly suspicious of the rally and are likely to step into fresh short positions once it becomes clear other countries/parties are not entering the conflict...[MORE]

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While the dollar is bordering on a lower low early in the session today and the index might continue to see some light long liquidation ahead of the key monthly US nonfarm payroll report, it could be difficult to shut off the uptrend in the dollar in place since July.

In retrospect, jobs-related data this week and in the previous two weeks (from declines in initial claims) suggests the number should be positive to growth views thereby rekindling strength in the dollar and likely sending US interest rates to higher levels.

Estimates for this month's nonfarm payroll gain are 168,000 which compares to last month's reading of 187,000...[MORE]

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While gold and silver are oversold both markets lack fundamental justification to withstand constant bearish pressure flowing from treasury and currency market action.

Certainly, short-term technical indicators in gold and silver are dramatically oversold with declines of $37 in gold in eight trading sessions and declines of three dollars in silver in just three trading sessions.

However, the breath of the bearishness toward gold is justified with the market potentially (according to Reuters) poised to post the longest consecutive daily losing streak in seven years today...[MORE]

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While the gold and silver markets have managed to respect yesterday's spike low, classic fundamentals remain bearish with the best hope of bottoming action coming from significantly oversold technical conditions.

However, given the largest month-over-month jump in US job openings since July 2021, the trade is anticipating positive US jobs sector news again today which in turn is expected to produce even higher US treasury yields and even higher US dollar exchange rates.

In fact, Fed dialogue regarding the potential for sharp gains in long-term interest rates suggests the Fed sees ongoing normalization of the yield curve as a sign their tightening policies are working...[MORE]

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With a fresh higher high in the dollar overnight outside market pressure looks to have extended into another session for gold and silver.

However, continuing dollar strength is no surprise after Fed speeches yesterday confirmed unanimity among Fed members of the need to keep policy restricted for some time to bring #inflation down to the Fed's 2% targeted rate.

In fact, the Fed has definitively stressed the potential long duration of tight policy to achieve their goal...[MORE]

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While the recovery in the dollar is not significant this morning, and the slide in treasuries has not resulted in higher highs in (an upside breakout) in treasury yields, outside forces have clearly shifted back in favor of the bear camp.

Apparently, China released its manufacturing PMI readings for September overnight which countervailed recent signs of green shoots and a measure of optimism that was associated with the upcoming extended holiday.

Once again, the US Congress "kicked the debt problem down the road" with a continuing resolution pushing the threat into mid-November...[MORE] 

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While December gold has avoided a fresh lower low in the early Thursday trade the path of least resistance remains down with outside market forces firmly anchored in the bear camp.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, the markets will face another critical US initial claims reading, with last week's reading posting the lowest weekly claims since early February!

At present, analyzing the gold market has become simplistic with unending strength in the dollar dominating the gold market...[MORE]

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Another new high in the dollar equals another new low in gold and ongoing but less significant pressure on silver.

In addition to the cascading pressure from the strengthening dollar, both gold and silver continue to see an exodus of investment from ETF holdings.

Yesterday gold ETF holdings declined by 66,197 ounces and silver holdings declined by 1.26 million ounces, leaving net sales this year in gold at 5.15 million ounces and net sales of silver this year at 28.2 million ounces...[MORE]

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With the dollar posting another higher high for the move and approaching the 106.00 level, currency pressure on gold and silver continues to increase.

However, yesterday gold and silver showed they could avoid wholesale liquidations, but further pressure today could result in a fresh wave of stop-loss selling.

While the higher for longer interest rate mantra remains on the back of most markets the markets will be presented with a series of US housing price and sales readings today which have been showing signs of softening that could temporarily undermine the dollar...[MORE]

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