Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

The big question for the gold trade now is will the tensions between Israel and Iran cool and temporarily end the potential for sudden massive geopolitical-inspired flight to quality buying?

While not a major bearish development gold and silver ETF holdings continue to decline with the declines in gold and silver ETF holdings very significant yesterday (Gold -218,995 ounces & Silver -6.3 ml ounces).

Even the technical picture has shifted in favor of the bear camp with the overnight spike-up move squarely rejected...[MORE]

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Despite a chorus of hawkish (less dovish) global central bank dialogue flowing from the IMF meeting, gold and silver prices are tracking higher perhaps because of slightly supportive outside market action in US treasuries and the dollar.

However, a new concern may be rising in the marketplace as significant declines in Japanese and South Korean currencies were acknowledged by the US Treasury Secretary at the IMF meeting with the US, Japan, and South Korean officials agreeing on the need to monitor and consult with other central banks on the situation.

Not surprisingly, the IMF dialogue has resulted in a downside extension in the US dollar this morning which could be the primary source of the gold and silver rebounds.

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The bias in gold remains up despite negative divergence with silver prices and news of continued outflows from gold and silver ETF holdings.

However, yesterday gold impressively managed gains despite another significant extension of upside action in the dollar and in the face of another higher high in US treasury yields.

There are some discussions in the marketplace that some form of crisis is ahead because of the unrelenting gold market gains and the only other major market reaction to a looming global flight to quality event is the surging US dollar...[MORE]

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While the dollar has retrenched from a fresh spike up new high for the move this morning, the bias in the dollar remains up to start today.

However, soft US housing data could provide a brief respite from the strong dollar for gold and silver longs this morning.

Unfortunately for the bull camp gold and silver ETF holdings continue to decline highlighting a lack of small investor interest in one niche of the metal markets.

On the other hand, Citi has doubled down on its bullish gold price forecast projecting gold to reach $3000 in the next 6 to 18 months...[MORE]

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With gold and silver prices significantly higher overnight in the face of a very significant upward thrust in the US dollar, it is possible the markets are beginning to aggressively embrace flight to quality buying from rising economic concerns toward China.

In fact, overnight Chinese import, and export readings came in significantly below expectations which facilitates more anxiety toward an economy thought to have serious problems.

It is also likely that rising concerns of financial pressures on developing countries are fostering flight to quality buying of gold and silver in anticipation of a financial crisis in the emerging market sector...[MORE]

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With the dollar this morning forging another higher high and reaching the highest level since early November, the currency impact on gold, silver, and copper remains negative.

Likewise, US treasury yields remain a burden with yields reaching the highest levels since last November with another higher high overnight.

While it is not clear what the direct ramifications are on gold prices, a precipitous decline in Chinese Consumer Price Index readings for March overnight suggests the Chinese economy is doing very poorly which could be a double-edged sword...[MORE]

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While gold has not managed a new all-time high this morning, both gold and silver markets remain just under this week's highs.

We suspect the downgrade of China provides a measure of flight to quality buying. However, China is also the largest consumer of gold, and the last mainland China gold import tally showed a month-over-month reduction of almost 50% and therefore the downgrade could injure classic physical gold demand expectations.

In a sign of volatility potential in the current market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange implemented trading limits on gold and copper starting Friday...[MORE]

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The overnight action is a good example of how the gold and silver trade is tracking its own course, as interest rates, currency, bitcoin, and energy prices are not giving off notable influences and yet gold and silver prices have surged again with gold posting another new all-time high.

Therefore, it is unlikely gold is tracking a classic safe harbor issue with a broad global origin.

In a slightly negative signal, both gold and silver ETF holdings declined yesterday, with the gold extraction of 299,047 ounces the largest single-day exodus in three months...[MORE]

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While the gold and silver markets exhibited significant two-sided volatility at the end of last week, the bull trend has clearly prevailed and is managing that action despite adversity from the dollar and interest rates.

However, a small portion of the upside impetus is likely the failed Middle East peace talks undertaken by Egypt.

It appears that gold and silver ETF holdings have started to climb with the flat price of gold in a potential beginning of the end of the rally...[MORE]

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Clearly, gold and silver prices lost upside momentum in the wake of a very active US economic report slate this week that has presented a mixed outlook for the US economy and surprisingly failed to markedly increase expectations for a US June rate cut.

Certainly, the markets have been disappointed by Fed dialogue seemingly playing down and or pushing back the prospect of rate cuts!

However, the gold and silver trade will likely remain sensitive and perhaps poised to rally if today's key nonfarm payroll reading is softer and the takeaway from US data shifts sentiment toward economic risk...[MORE]

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