Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

Apparently, expectations for a June US interest rate cut have returned which in turn fueled the most significant gold and silver rallies since early December.

However, the CME Fed Watch tool did not show a significant increase in the probability of a June rate cut from just below 50% early last week to only 52.8% after the close Friday.

Therefore, the gold and silver markets are anticipating the continuation of soft US and international data which has already resulted in widespread talk of eurozone, Japanese, and Canadian rate cuts in June...[MORE]

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In retrospect, the action in gold and silver this week has been nothing short of stellar given periodic adversity from strength in the dollar.

Furthermore, gold managed to shrug off headwinds from signs of slowing in the US and European economies especially with gold at times over the last several weeks seemingly benefiting from "hope" of a recovery in physical/industrial gold demand following a global macroeconomic euphoria wave.

Apparently, the gold trade interpreted yesterday's US PCE report result as a sign inflation was slowing which apparently keeps US rate cut hopes alive...[MORE]

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Not surprisingly, the markets expected to be impacted by today's critical US inflation reading (PCE) and they have forged tight trading ranges again overnight as many traders avoid implementing fresh positions in front of what could be a critical trend-deciding report in the form of US PCE later today.

Fortunately for the bull camp, open interest in gold has come down significantly since the middle of last month, potentially suggesting the market found solid value earlier this month around $2,000.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, a US PCE reading above +0.3% will likely relaunch the dollar sharply higher and set the stage for a return to $2,000 in April gold in the coming sessions...[MORE]

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With an upside breakout in the US dollar overnight surprisingly forged in the wake of a series of soft US data points over the last 5 sessions, the markets are expecting today's US GDP report to partially right the ship of the US economy.

However, it is also possible the dollar is feeding higher off persistent hawkish views from Federal Reserve members which could be expected to reach a fever pitch just before midsession today with the Fed's Bostic, Collins, and Williams speaking just ahead of midsession.

Expectations for US GDP call for no revision in a previous growth rate of 3.3%. While not a definitive bullish impact, a Russian gold mining group indicated last year's gold production declined by 6.8% on a base output of 412,500 Troy ounces...[MORE]

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With a three-day low in the dollar extending a lower high and lower low pattern and US treasuries posting early gains, gold and silver bulls have an edge from outside market action.

The dollar was clearly undermined by disappointing US new home sales readings for January yesterday, and we suspect the trade saw some anticipatory selling ahead of what is expected to be a very soft US durable goods report today (expectations -4.5%).

While we think softer economic activity will undermine gold and silver prices because of the recent focus on the potential for improved physical demand, it is possible a very disappointing US durable goods report will knock the dollar sharply lower and in turn help gold and silver find firm support...[MORE]

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The action in gold this morning should be concerning to the bull camp as the dollar remains vulnerable on its charts with five straight days of lower highs.

While not a major supportive development, treasury prices have added to last week's late rebound early today.

With a lack of global economic data overnight, generally lower equities, and a veritable avalanche of US scheduled data ahead this week some gold longs might be taking profits and moving to the sidelines temporarily...[MORE]

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Fortunately for the bull camp in gold, today's US economic reports slate is empty which could tamp down revived interest in the dollar following yesterday's flow of very favorable US housing and jobs data.

In retrospect, the higher high in April gold early Thursday was heavily dependent on the sharp washout in the dollar.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, the dollar staged a significant recovery and US treasury yields reached higher highs off further erosion of hope for a US rate cut...[MORE]

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While the press continues to tout flight to quality buying interest in gold from events in the Middle East, we are highly suspicious of that argument and think the ebb and flow of the dollar index trade is the primary focus of the gold trade.

Therefore, with the downside breakout/plunge in the dollar to the lowest level since February 2nd overnight, US treasury yields potentially capping out just below three-month highs, and broad-based risk-on sentiment from good Nvidia earnings the bull camp has several credible themes.

While it is possible that gold is deriving some investment support from surging Harmony gold mining shares, the company also predicted their production would increase by 14% and they recorded higher grades of ore than year-ago levels which are limiting gold futures prices...[MORE]

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With a higher high for the move overnight April gold has extended a slight bullish edge into another trading session.

Surprisingly April gold managed the higher high despite a measure of strength in the dollar.

However, a very minor and indirect negative impact on gold overnight came from a very hot New Zealand producer price index reading which for some keeps fear of global inflation in place.

In today's early action traders will be confronted with a US Fed speech, a 20-year US treasury bond auction, and perhaps most importantly the release of the FOMC meeting minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting...[MORE]

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