Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

Apparently, gold and silver traders have had a change of heart over the weekend as the recent revival of US rate cut hopes have seemingly dissipated overnight perhaps because of the prospect of lingering inflation signals from the US PPI report tomorrow.

However, expectations for the report call for a 0.2% gain, which will match the previous month, and in turn that could mean inflation has continued to grow over the last four weeks albeit at a softer rate.

In another negative, the gold market continues to see signs of high price adversity in the Indian gold trade...[MORE]

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While we understand the premise, seeing gold and silver explode on the upside from a revival of US rate cut hopes appears to be an overreaction.

In fact, outside market impacts from treasuries, currencies, and oil prices this morning are not registering noted action seemingly indicating the metals rallies are occurring in isolation.

Sentiment is so bullish that expectations toward US CPI and PPI next week are factoring in a downtick in inflation which in turn translates into higher rate cut expectations...[MORE]

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While we don't expect to see significant gold and silver price reactions to today's US jobs-related data, a higher high in the dollar early on, slightly higher US interest rates, and a series of lower highs and lower lows in gold this week leaves the bear camp with an edge.

On the other hand, the trade is expecting a slight increase in continuing and initial jobless claims and that could provide a brief lift for prices.

However, favorable Chinese trade data and a report of an improvement in the Chinese homebuyer market should boost expectations for better Chinese gold demand...[MORE]

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With the US dollar posting a four-day high overnight and the bias shifting slightly back toward a hawkish vibe (following Minneapolis Fed Pres. comments suggesting the Fed might be on hold through the end of the year) the bias in gold and silver is down to start today.

Furthermore, the gold market remains under residual pressure from news yesterday that PBOC gold buying last month slowed perhaps because of the unending record price run.

However, the Peoples Bank of China extended its record of 18 straight monthly additions to reserves with a very minimal purchase of 60,000 ounces which is down 100,000 ounces from March and a very explosive 390,000 ounces below February...[MORE]

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While the #gold market forged a quasi-upside breakout yesterday the market has fallen back into a building consolidation zone largely situated between $2352 and $2285.

In general, we suspect gold and #silver will continue to benefit from geopolitical flight to quality buying (especially with the Israelis launching their attack on the southern city of Rafah) and somewhat less from the dovish pivot in sentiment toward US interest rates following last week's data.

However, the bull camp should be very discouraged with the lack of gains in gold and silver this morning given the Israeli offensive...[MORE]

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With relative calm in the Middle East apparently poised to end soon with an Israeli attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, it is not surprising to see gold and silver leap higher to start the new week.

While overnight news coverage of the markets suggests gold is rising off US rate cut hopes for later this year, we suspect rate cut hopes are a minimal portion of the fuel for this morning's gains.

Classic demand signals were present overnight with the Perth mint April gold sales doubled from March sales while silver sales declined to their lowest level since December...[MORE]

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With a downside breakout in the dollar index overnight to the lowest level since April 12th, a portion of the bear camp should be discouraged.

However, gold has clearly established a pattern of lower highs and remains within the lower quarter of the range of the last 30 days in a fashion that favors the bear camp.

Furthermore, gold ETF holdings yesterday declined by a VERY significant 193,328 ounces for a 0.2% daily decline, with silver ETF holdings declining by 4.3 million ounces in the last two days...[MORE]

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With the gold and silver markets spiking higher following the Fed policy decision and press conference, the bulls showed some control as the trade was able to discount disappointment over another delay in cutting rates and instead embraced relief that the Fed was not in a mode to consider rate hikes!

However, given a significant jump in ISM Manufacturing prices-paid earlier this week that should be seen as a sign that inflation lives on in various sectors of the economy.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, we think that "dovish spin" will have a short shelf life, especially if today's US unit labor costs report matches expectations of a gain of 3.2% compared to last month's gain of 0.4%...[MORE]

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The deck is stacked against the bull camps in gold and silver today, with an upside breakout in the dollar, signs of higher treasury yields, fear of a hawkish Federal Reserve statement, and a lack of support from Chinese and European buyers overnight due to the May Day holiday.

However, the gold market should derive some underpin from World Gold Council projections of continued brisk global central bank purchases, and signs of positive gold demand from India and China.

It should also be noted that Indian gold demand increased by 8% during the January through March timeframe with gold jewelry demand in India increasing by 4% and amounting to a significant percentage of total world gold demand...[MORE]

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