Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

There is no doubt the gold market has expended a tremendous amount of speculative buying fuel in achieving a $200 rally and today the trade will finally see the true origin of the rally.

In our opinion, part of the significant rally in gold is the market's attempt to mirror the record rally in Bitcoin, with a lesser force from hopes of a June rate cut.

Clearly, traders are becoming price-sensitive as Friday's massive range-up move has stalled and trading volume has moderated significantly...[MORE]

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With outside market action remaining in favor of the bear camp early today, the bull camp remains hopeful that this week's inflation data will further revive the prospect of a US rate cut, which in turn would continue to pressure the dollar and treasury yields lower.

However, the gold market is vulnerable this morning following comments from the Indian Bullion and Jewelers Association suggesting Indian wedding season demand will soften due to record pricing.

Along those lines, the domestic Indian gold trade has seen prices shift into a discount relative to global markets, with Chinese premiums narrowing...[MORE]

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Higher all-time highs overnight are clearly justified by ongoing outside market assistance.

In addition to a multiweek low in US treasury yields, the gold and silver bulls were presented with a downside extension in the dollar to the lowest levels since the middle of January!

In retrospect, outside market forces for gold this week became entrenched in favor of the bull camp with a distinct pattern of US slowing evidence, a slightly dovish US Fed takeaway, and increased expectations for a June rate cut from the ECB...[MORE]

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While the views might be misguided and premature, a segment of the market believes interest rate cuts are likely to rekindle inflation which could be the source of the recent buying frenzy in gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

Another bullish catalyst for gold and other physical commodities came from strong Chinese commodity imports which provides hope the Chinese economy is recovering. Keep in mind, the Chinese are the world's largest gold consumers!

However, April gold has continued to surge over the last 48 hours while Bitcoin has seemingly stalled questioning the correlation between the two markets...[MORE]

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Obviously, gold and silver are short-term overbought from a technical perspective and perhaps somewhat overbought from a fundamental perspective.

Nonetheless, with gold and silver prices vaulting higher yesterday and gold prices forging record highs again, the bull camp retains control even without a definitively apparent bullish fundamental theme.

However, gold has forged a five-day low-to-high rally of $123 which suggests the bull camp will need some "help" from the US Federal Reserve Chairman's testimony this morning...[MORE]

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With both gold and silver posting higher highs overnight it is clear the bullish track from the prior three trading sessions has remained in place.

In fact, given a significant dip in eurozone producer prices of 0.9%, the prospects of an ECB rate cut in June have jumped.

Apparently, the gold and silver trade are not unnerved by the disappointing Chinese Caixin services PMI reading, but that could be the result of anticipation of a Chinese stimulus package announcement...[MORE]

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Apparently, expectations for a June US interest rate cut have returned which in turn fueled the most significant gold and silver rallies since early December.

However, the CME Fed Watch tool did not show a significant increase in the probability of a June rate cut from just below 50% early last week to only 52.8% after the close Friday.

Therefore, the gold and silver markets are anticipating the continuation of soft US and international data which has already resulted in widespread talk of eurozone, Japanese, and Canadian rate cuts in June...[MORE]

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In retrospect, the action in gold and silver this week has been nothing short of stellar given periodic adversity from strength in the dollar.

Furthermore, gold managed to shrug off headwinds from signs of slowing in the US and European economies especially with gold at times over the last several weeks seemingly benefiting from "hope" of a recovery in physical/industrial gold demand following a global macroeconomic euphoria wave.

Apparently, the gold trade interpreted yesterday's US PCE report result as a sign inflation was slowing which apparently keeps US rate cut hopes alive...[MORE]

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Not surprisingly, the markets expected to be impacted by today's critical US inflation reading (PCE) and they have forged tight trading ranges again overnight as many traders avoid implementing fresh positions in front of what could be a critical trend-deciding report in the form of US PCE later today.

Fortunately for the bull camp, open interest in gold has come down significantly since the middle of last month, potentially suggesting the market found solid value earlier this month around $2,000.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, a US PCE reading above +0.3% will likely relaunch the dollar sharply higher and set the stage for a return to $2,000 in April gold in the coming sessions...[MORE]

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With an upside breakout in the US dollar overnight surprisingly forged in the wake of a series of soft US data points over the last 5 sessions, the markets are expecting today's US GDP report to partially right the ship of the US economy.

However, it is also possible the dollar is feeding higher off persistent hawkish views from Federal Reserve members which could be expected to reach a fever pitch just before midsession today with the Fed's Bostic, Collins, and Williams speaking just ahead of midsession.

Expectations for US GDP call for no revision in a previous growth rate of 3.3%. While not a definitive bullish impact, a Russian gold mining group indicated last year's gold production declined by 6.8% on a base output of 412,500 Troy ounces...[MORE]

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