Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

With a three-day low in the dollar extending a lower high and lower low pattern and US treasuries posting early gains, gold and silver bulls have an edge from outside market action.

The dollar was clearly undermined by disappointing US new home sales readings for January yesterday, and we suspect the trade saw some anticipatory selling ahead of what is expected to be a very soft US durable goods report today (expectations -4.5%).

While we think softer economic activity will undermine gold and silver prices because of the recent focus on the potential for improved physical demand, it is possible a very disappointing US durable goods report will knock the dollar sharply lower and in turn help gold and silver find firm support...[MORE]

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The action in gold this morning should be concerning to the bull camp as the dollar remains vulnerable on its charts with five straight days of lower highs.

While not a major supportive development, treasury prices have added to last week's late rebound early today.

With a lack of global economic data overnight, generally lower equities, and a veritable avalanche of US scheduled data ahead this week some gold longs might be taking profits and moving to the sidelines temporarily...[MORE]

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Fortunately for the bull camp in gold, today's US economic reports slate is empty which could tamp down revived interest in the dollar following yesterday's flow of very favorable US housing and jobs data.

In retrospect, the higher high in April gold early Thursday was heavily dependent on the sharp washout in the dollar.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, the dollar staged a significant recovery and US treasury yields reached higher highs off further erosion of hope for a US rate cut...[MORE]

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While the press continues to tout flight to quality buying interest in gold from events in the Middle East, we are highly suspicious of that argument and think the ebb and flow of the dollar index trade is the primary focus of the gold trade.

Therefore, with the downside breakout/plunge in the dollar to the lowest level since February 2nd overnight, US treasury yields potentially capping out just below three-month highs, and broad-based risk-on sentiment from good Nvidia earnings the bull camp has several credible themes.

While it is possible that gold is deriving some investment support from surging Harmony gold mining shares, the company also predicted their production would increase by 14% and they recorded higher grades of ore than year-ago levels which are limiting gold futures prices...[MORE]

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With a higher high for the move overnight April gold has extended a slight bullish edge into another trading session.

Surprisingly April gold managed the higher high despite a measure of strength in the dollar.

However, a very minor and indirect negative impact on gold overnight came from a very hot New Zealand producer price index reading which for some keeps fear of global inflation in place.

In today's early action traders will be confronted with a US Fed speech, a 20-year US treasury bond auction, and perhaps most importantly the release of the FOMC meeting minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting...[MORE]

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With the gold market sitting at levels that would create the first weekly loss of this year, the dollar minimally higher, treasury yields minimally higher and US producer price index report for January scheduled for release this morning, gold is likely to experience a flare of volatility which will likely dissipate quickly.

While we see the current fundamental and technical trend pointing down, as expected or softer than expected PPI readings (expectations of +0.1%) could dramatically increase respect for the $2000 level and prompt a short covering wave capable of sending April gold up to $2026.

However, the trade will be presented with a second wave of US inflation information in the form of the University of Michigan five-year consumer inflation expectations report for the month of February...[MORE]

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While April gold is tracking in positive territory early today and has established a key pivot point around $2005, the onus is on the bull camp to prove the market can respect even number consolidation support at $2000.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, gold ETF holdings continue to slide with year-to-date outflows of 2.8% taking place in less than 50 days.

While Indian gold imports in January increased to $1.9 billion that is probably a function of the recovery in gold prices and not necessarily from increased volume...[MORE]

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While the magnitude of yesterday's US CPI upside surprise was not significant, the markets were clearly undermined by another US data point which appears to push back US rate cut timing.

Today the markets will have a pause from US inflation news with several Fed speeches potentially providing some fireworks.

However, the US dollar is sitting right on the spike-up highs from yesterday early today leaving the currency influence on gold and silver bearish...[MORE]

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