Gold and silver reach fresh records for a third day this week
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: This week's inflation data were mixed. Both headline and core CPI held steady in December, at 2.7% y/y and 2.6% y/y, respectively. Meanwhile, PPI warmed to 3.0% y/y in November, versus 2.8% in October and 2.7% in September. Core CPI also rebounded to a four-month high of 3.0%.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the White House was quick to celebrate the CPI print as evidence that "inflation is firmly under control," dialing up the pressure on Jerome Powell to deliver a meaningful rate cut. However, the rise in PPI may indicate ongoing upstream wholesale price pressures that could feed into future consumer inflation.
Ongoing pressure from the White House and the recent DoJ subpoenas are stoking concerns that the Fed could lose its independence. Powell's term as Fed Chair ends in May, and it's safe to assume Trump will appoint an ardent dove to helm the central bank.
Rate cut bets for this year remain little changed based on Fed funds futures. The trade continues to anticipate 50 bps of easing this year, but further cuts aren't expected until H2.
Reports are circulating that President Trump has decided on U.S. military intervention against Iran in response to the regime's deadly crackdown on anti-government protests, which has killed over 2,400 demonstrators. Multiple sources, including Reuters and European officials, suggest that strikes could occur within the next 24 hours.
Trump continues to push for U.S. control or annexation of Greenland, declaring that "anything less than" full U.S. ownership is "unacceptable" for national security reasons. Greenland and Denmark have firmly rejected these overtures, and concerns about fracturing NATO unity are mounting.
MBA Mortgage Applications Index surged 28.5% to a 16-week high of 348 for the week ended 9-Jan. The 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.18%, nearly a three-year low.
PPI rose 0.1% in October, below expectations of +0.2%, versus +0.6% in September; 2.8% y/y, versus 3.0% in September. Core +0.3% m/m; 2.9% y/y, steady versus September.
PPI rose 0.2% in November, in line with expectations, versus +0.1% in October; 2.8% y/y, versus 3.0% in September. Core UNCH, below expectations of +0.2%, versus +0.3% in October; 3.0% y/y, versus 2.9% in October.
Retail Sales rose 0.6% in November, above expectations of +0.4%, versus -0.1% in October.
Existing Home Sales rose 5.07% to a 4.35M pace in December, above expectations of 4.21M, versus 4.14M in November.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$43.81 (+0.96%)
5-Day Change: +$181.19 (+4.07%)
YTD Range: $4310.83 - $4,642.74
52-Week Range: $2,670.32 - $4,642.74
Weighted Alpha: +73.51
Gold extended its run to new all-time highs for a third consecutive day this week, as expectations of U.S. military action in support of Iranian protesters boosted safe-haven demand. The yellow metal also continues to be underpinned by silver's explosive rally.
While the dollar is catching some haven interest as well, I don't see it as much of a headwind for gold. The dollar index is trading near six-week highs. A breach of 99.26/31 would suggest potential for a return to the 100 zone.
Existing Fibonacci objectives at $4,686.61 and 4719.43 are within striking distance for gold. Beyond that, $4,800 and $4,900 would attract, with the long-standing $5,000 target very much in play.
The $4,600 zone marks initial support. Additional supports at $4,586.66 and $4,571.16 protect the low for the week set on Monday at $4,509.87.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$3.635 (+4.18%)
5-Day Change: +$14.674 (+18.77%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $92.909
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $92.909
Weighted Alpha: +265.63
Silver continues to press deeper into uncharted territory as its remarkable rally continues. The white metal is up more than 30% YTD, +16% this week so far, and more than 7% just today.
Chinese export controls on silver, which went into effect at the beginning of the year, added to persistent supply concerns in a market that has faced a structural supply deficit for five years. China ranks second in terms of global mine output, but they control 60-70% of the world's refined silver trade.
Add to that the current geopolitical tensions, domestic political unrest, expectations for further Fed easing, worries about Fed independence, mounting fiscal concerns, and ongoing de-dollarization, and it becomes a bit of a perfect storm. Silver remains "cheap" when compared to the other precious metals, but has the added benefit of robust and growing industrial demand.
Technical objectives at $88.297, $90, and $91.009 have been satisfied and exceeded this week. Additional gains toward $100 are a real possibility, although conditions are likely to remain volatile. Intervening targets are noted at $95 and $96.571.
Initial support is at the $92 zone, which protects $90 and the earlier U.S. low at $89.727. The overseas low $86.940 looks to be well protected at this point, but when the longs finally believe this market has gone far enough and requires correction, silver can go down just as fast (if not faster) than it went up.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold starts the week with new record highs, while silver reclaims the 85-handle
Outside Market Developments: Fed Chairman Powell revealed on Sunday that the DoJ had served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas on Friday related to his June 2025 congressional testimony about the central bank's headquarters renovation project. Powell described the action as a pretext for political pressure to force lower interest rates, marking a major escalation in tensions with the Trump administration.
A Bloomberg article suggested FHFA Director Bill Pulte had pushed for scrutiny of Powell's testimony. However, Pulte has denied knowledge of the subpoenas, calling the DoJ "out of my purview."
President Trump has been extremely critical of Powell, so it's not surprising that many see the legal action as an avenue to install a more dovish Fed chair before Powell's term expires in May. The market is expressing concern about the potential loss of Fed independence, but at the same time, acknowledging that the leadership change – whether in May or sooner – will tilt the Fed more dovish.
This is stoking risk appetite to start the week, although Fed funds futures currently suggest the central bank is likely on pause for the first half of 2026. The trade still sees scope for 50 bps in total easing this year, although the first 25 bps cut isn't fully priced in until September. FedSpeak is on tap today from Bostic, Barkin, and Williams
The Trump administration has vowed to run the economy hot and sees the Fed's measured pace of rate cuts as a hurdle to be overcome. Both Pulte and Trump likely see more aggressive easing as a means to lower mortgage rates, making housing more affordable, and encourage refinancings to free up disposable income.
More disposable income would stoke consumption, which is the primary driver of the U.S. economy. However, lower mortgage rates also tend to drive up home prices. And hotter consumption could revive inflation more broadly. December CPI and PPI data are out later this week, with expectations leaning steady to slightly hotter.
If the DoJ charges are indeed viewed as a "tactic" to expedite Powell's replacement, it could give some GOP Senators pause, posing a challenge for the confirmation of Trump's preferred nominee. That could lead to a centrist Fed chair.
Separately, Trump has called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, amid record-high consumer debt levels. U.S. household debt reached a staggering $18.59 trillion in Q3 2025, with credit card and other revolving debt accounting for $1.21 trillion.
Not surprisingly, the banking industry objects as a 10% cap means some risk is going to be underpriced. This could lead to reduced credit availability, card cancellations for riskier borrowers, and drive consumers to costlier alternatives such as payday loans.
Iran remains gripped by the largest anti-government uprising since 2022. The unrest has spread to dozens of cities and challenges the Islamic Republic's clerical rule. The regime has imposed a near-total internet blackout, intensifying its crackdown with live ammunition and mass arrests.
President Trump has expressed support for the protestors and threatened intervention. Iran says that would prompt retaliation against U.S. and/or Israeli interests.
Venezuela remains in turmoil following the U.S. military operation on January 3 that captured and removed President Nicolás Maduro. While President Trump has vowed a swift restoration of democracy, economic sanctions relief upon verifiable free elections, and massive reconstruction aid, the country faces intensified repression by security forces, widespread uncertainty over governance, and international condemnation of the intervention as a violation of Venezuelan sovereignty.
In Greenland, tensions have escalated dramatically as President Trump repeatedly threatened to acquire the Danish autonomous territory "the easy way or the hard way." Greenlandic and Danish leaders have firmly rejected any sale or annexation, with European allies – including France, Germany, and the UK – issuing strong rebukes.
Here in America, political tensions remain elevated as anti-ICE protests intensified over the weekend. Many media outlets frame them as mounting outrage against perceived overreach in immigration policy, tying into broader criticisms of the administration's tactics, with some explicitly noting risks of wider unrest amid heightened tensions.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$76.42 (+1.69%)
5-Day Change: +$172.37 (+3.87%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $4,629.64
52-Week Range: $2,657.28 - $4,629.64
Weighted Alpha: +72.68
Gold begins the week with a strong bid, reaching fresh record highs above $4,600. The yellow metal is being spurred by heightened haven interest associated with high geopolitical and domestic political tensions, worries over Fed independence, expectations for further Fed rate cuts later this year, a generally soft dollar, and mounting fiscal risks.
The $4,624.44 Fibonacci objective has been satisfied, boosting confidence in the extended bullish scenario that suggests potential to $5,000 in Q1'26. Intervening targets are noted at $4,686.61 and $4,719.43.
ETF inflows were a tepid 9.7 tonnes last week, but all regions were net buyers. It was the tenth consecutive week of inflows. I anticipate that today's move to record highs after two weeks of corrective/consolidative action is going to reinvigorate ETF interest.
The previous record highs at $4,549.77/17 now mark initial support. Today's Asian low at $4,509.87 is the more important short-term level to watch. Buying on dips ahead of the latter seems likely with additional support at $4,500.34/$4,497.29. The rising 20-day moving average is well protected at $4,418.59.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$3.913 (+4.90%)
5-Day Change: +$9.272 (+12.10%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $74.552
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $86.637
Weighted Alpha: +229.49
Silver surged back above $85 in overseas trading on Monday, bringing the $86.637 record high from late December back within striking distance. The white metal begins the week with a gain of more than 6%, and a stunning weighted alpha reading well above 200, driven by spillover haven interest, rising geoplitical tensions, and a persistent supply/demand imbalance.
New record highs above $86.637 would clear the way for a push to $88.297 (200% retrace of the decline from $50 to $11.703), $90, and $91.009. An eventual move above the latter would lead to increasingly serious talk about $100 silver.
Intraday support at $83.597 protects today's Asian low at $79.993. The magnitude of the retracement last week went a long way toward confirming that a corrective low was in place at $70.562. I'm calling the $70 zone key support. While it seems likely that volatility is destined to remain high, buying strategies remain favored.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold and silver start the week on the bid amid heightened haven interest, soft dollar
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Over the weekend, U.S. forces conducted a daring pre-dawn raid on Venezuela's Fort Tiuna, capturing Nicolas Maduro and his wife. The couple was quickly extracted by helicopter to the USS Iwo Jima in the Caribbean before being flown to New York, where Maduro now faces federal charges, including narcoterrorism.
The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting this morning, at the request of Colombia and Venezuela, with strong backing from Russia and China, who condemned the action as a violation of international law and sovereignty. Russia, China, and some of their allies pushed for condemnation of the U.S. "aggression" and called for Maduro's release. The U.S. defended the raid as justified self-defense against narcoterrorism under Article 51 of the UN Charter. No resolutions were passed, with the U.S poised to exercise its veto power.
Global financial markets reacted with relative calm to events in Venezuela. Oil prices were volatile but remained broadly steady to slightly higher. OPEC met briefly on Sunday and is reportedly maintaining its existing output policy amid an anticipated global oil surplus, rather than making any adjustments for Venezuelan developments.
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, at approximately 303 bln barrels. However, output is dominated by lower-quality, heavier, sour crudes that are more difficult to refine into valuable products like gasoline. That being said, refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast are capable of processing this grade of oil.
Although there is a fair amount of uncertainty about what happens next, risk appetite has rebounded from recent subdued levels. U.S. stock indices are higher, buoyed by ongoing AI optimism and gains in energy companies on expectations of a Venezuelan oil sector revival. President Trump vowed U.S. oil companies will invest "billions and billions" into the country.
The official VES-USD rate was relatively stable above 300. Information on the more indicative black market rate was sparse, but thought to be around 560. Once the dust settles, the bolívar may garner some strength amid hopes of economic stabilization. Venezuelan government bonds surged as markets priced in hopes of eventual debt restructuring under a U.S.-friendly government, reflecting optimism about unlocking investment despite ongoing political and legal controversies.
Markets will be focused on U.S. labor market data this week. Friday's December nonfarm payrolls report on will be the highlight. Median expectations are +50k. Incoming jobs data may help clarify the policy outlook for the first half of the year.
Manufacturing ISM ebbed to 47.9 in December, below expectations of 48.3, versus 48.2 in November. It was the third straight monthly decline. On the bright side, employment and new orders metrics improved.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$87.01 (+2.01%)
5-Day Change: +$117.65 (+2.72%)
YTD Range: $4310.83 - $4,455.50
52-Week Range: $2,621.42 - $4,549.77
Weighted Alpha: +65.60
Gold starts the week on the bid, spurred by safe-haven interest in light of weekend events in Venezuela, which arguably raise already high tensions with China and Russia. While the dollar index initially rallied to four-week highs, those gains could not be sustained, and now DXY is lower on the day.
With more than 61.8% of recent corrective losses retraced, considerable confidence has been returned to the underlying uptrend. The next tier of Fibonacci resistance is at $4,491.02 (78.6%). A breach of this level would clear the way for a retest of the $4,549.77 record high.
Additional upside targets are noted at $4,624.44, $4,686.61, and $4,719.43. Further out, the $5,000 objective remains valid, with attainment in Q1 deemed likely.
The rebound off the 20-day moving average provides additional encouragement to the bull camp. While further choppy trading may prevail in the short term, the current range low at $4,275.24 clearly defines risk. Intervening support levels are found at $4,420, $4400.00/$4,396.80, $4,333.91, and $4,310.83.
Keep an eye out this week for signs of additional weakness in the U.S. labor market, as that would increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut before June. That in turn would keep pressure on the dollar and underpin gold.
Gold is also likely to continue taking its cues from short-term action in silver.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.969 (+2.70%)
5-Day Change: +$4.991 (+6.92%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $77.153
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $86.637
Weighted Alpha: +188.31
Silver is up more than 5% intraday, garnering revived haven interest, with some help provided by strength in gold and the failure of the greenback to sustain intraday gains. More than 38.2% of the recent retreat has been retraced, boosting confidence that the dominant trend is still very much bullish.
A breach of the midpoint of the recent range at $78.600 would offer further encouragement to the bull camp. The 30-Dec high at $78.046 provides an intervening barrier.
A short-term rebound above $80 would shift focus to retracement levels at $80.496 (61.8%) and $83.197 (78.6%). Penetrations of these levels would clear the way for a challenge of last week's record high at $86.637.
Venezuela is not a significant silver producer due to underinvestment and poor infrastructure. Known reserves would be exploitable with sufficient investment, but that would take years, and at this point, oil seems to be the Trump administration's focus. I don't foresee any meaningful dent in silver's persistent supply deficit.
On the downside, minor intraday support at $75 protects the early U.S. low at $74.613. Below the latter, the Asian low at $72.839 looks to be well protected. The $70.562 level, down to $70.000, looks increasingly like the key short-term level that has to hold.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.
U.S. calendar features Manufacturing ISM, Vehicle Sales.
Gold straddles the 20-day moving average on the first trading day of 2026 5-Day Change: -$175.10 (-3.86%) YTD Range: $4,324.76 - $4,402.22 52-Week Range: $2,621.42 - $4,532.71 Weighted Alpha: +64.08 Gold ended 2025 with a 65.9% gain, its best annual percentage performance since 1979. The yellow metal posted gains in 11 of 12 months in 2026. Only July saw a monthly decline, and it was a scant -0.38%.  This remarkable rally was fueled by factors including persistent geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, central bank easing campaigns, a weaker dollar, trade uncertainties under President Trump, and robust investor inflows into gold ETFs, positioning it as the top-performing major asset class for the year. These bullish factors are likely to remain in place early in the new year. Price action has been corrective to consolidative over the past week, which has relieved the overbought condition somewhat. The underlying trend remains bullish, and I'm encouraged by the fact that gold has thus far been unable to sustain tests below the 20-day moving average. While it's premature to suggest a corrective low is in, investors will likely continue to look for buying opportunities on dips. I'm watching the 20-day MA at $4,344.92 on a close basis. A minor chart point at $4,308.75 protects the more important low for the week at $4,275.24. If the latter were to give way, potential to the $4,200 zone would have to be considered. On the upside, today's failed test back above $4,400 reinforces the $4,403.98/$4,412.51 resistance zone, which is highlighted by the 30-Dec high and the halfway back point of the corrective decline. Penetration of this area is needed to ease pressure on the downside and provide some encouragement to the bull camp. A breach of the 61.8% retracement level at $4,444.90 would clear the way for renewed tests above $4,500. Above that, the record high at $4,532.71 and the revised Fibonacci objective at $4,624.44 are in play. I still believe we can see $5,000 gold in Q1. SILVER OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.750 (+3.85%) 5-Day Change: -$5.475 (-6.91%) YTD Range: $71.429 - $74.552 52-Week Range: $28.565 - $86.637 Weighted Alpha: +180.09 Silver posted a gain of 146.7% in 2025, more than doubling the annual performance of gold. Like gold, it was the largest annual percentage gain since 1979. The white metal notched monthly gains in 10 of 12 months in 2025.  The stunning ascent was propelled by a confluence of surging industrial demand (from solar panels, EVs, AI components, and electronics), persistent supply deficits, massive ETF inflows exceeding 4,000 tons, safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions, global central bank easing, a weaker dollar, Fed rate cuts, and momentum trading that fueled repeated all-time highs and hair-raising volatility. Broad trade uncertainty in 2025 was also a contributing factor. China, the world's second-largest miner and exporter of silver, implemented stricter silver export controls effective January 1, 2026. Exporters are now required to obtain special government licenses from the Ministry of Commerce, but only 44 approved large companies qualify. While demand is expected to continue outpacing supply in 2026, which bodes well for the upside, arguably the market got ahead of itself in late 2025. I'd like to see the market consolidate in the $80/$65 range for several weeks. Once some reliable support levels have been established, the bulls are likely to start buying again with confidence. So far, the $70 level is holding on the downside, but the 20-day MA around $68 may be a short-term attraction. A convincing breach of the 20-day would suggest potential down to the $65 zone. Today's European high at $74.552 provides an intervening barrier ahead of $75 and recent highs at $76.403 (31-Dec) and $78.046 (30-Dec). The halfway back point of the recent correction comes in at $78.600 and is thought to be the key for reviving confidence in the underlying uptrend. Peter A. Grant Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist Zaner Metals LLC 312-549-9986 Direct/Text [email protected] www.zanermetals.com Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted. |
Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.
U.S. calendar features S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.
Gold and silver recover from Monday's sharp selloff
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk appetite has waned into year-end as investors book profits. While precious metals have been particularly volatile, U.S. share prices are displaying some resilience.
US stock markets have traded only modestly lower so far this week, with major indices pulling back from recent record highs in light, holiday-thinned volume. Investors are reportedly locking in gains on big tech names and rotating to less overvalued sectors.
President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday to discuss a proposed peace framework to end the war with Russia. Both leaders expressed optimism afterward that a deal was "maybe very close" despite persistent sticking points, particularly around territorial concessions in the Donbas region. Markets remain skeptical.
Geopolitical tensions remain broadly elevated heading into 2026. Top risks include the U.S. reshaping of trade/alliance relationships, intensified U.S.–China competition (especially in AI), the ongoing war in Ukraine, the tenuous ceasefire in Gaza, rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, and the latest U.S. saber rattling toward Iran.
Fed funds futures continue to suggest the central bank's easing campaign will be on pause early in the new year. However, the trade continues to price in 50 bps of rate cuts in 2026, with the first 25 bps cut likely to come in June. The minutes from the December FOMC meeting will be released later today, but are not likely to provide any additional clarity.
The dollar index remains defensive, having set a 12-week low last week. The magnitude of the downside retracement has returned considerable credence to the long-term downtrend, despite expectations for lower rates next year, amid mounting fiscal pressures and concerns about debasement.
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index declined 0.3% to 337.3 in October from 338.3 in September; +1.3% y/y. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.4% in October to a new record high at 436.8, above expectations of +0.1%, versus a revised 435.2 in September (was 435.4); +1.7% y/y, versus +1.8% in September.
Chicago PMI rebounded 7.2 points to 43.5 in December, above expectations of 39.5, versus 36.3 in November.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$52.50 (+1.21%)
5-Day Change: -$105.48 (-2.35%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $4,549.77
52-Week Range: $2,599.23 - $4,549.77
Weighted Alpha: +65.16
Gold has rebounded modestly from Monday's selloff, but price action remains confined to yesterday's range. Heightened geopolitical tensions and a generally soft dollar provide support. Volatility, particularly in silver and the PGMs, is probably tempering bullish sentiment somewhat.
This week's losses are seen as corrective within the dominant uptrend. All of the fundamental factors that have gold on pace for its best year since 1979 are still very much in place, including sustained central bank buying, persistent ETF inflows, expectations of further Fed easing, geopolitical hedging, and a weakening dollar.
Monday's setback to the 20-day moving average is actually a healthy event, although I would have preferred it happen over the course of several sessions.
Today's probe back above $4,400 is encouraging to the bull camp. However, a breach of the halfway-back point of the retreat at $4,429.26 would help confirm the 20-day and Monday's low at $4,308.75 as key short-term support.
A fresh round of lows would suggest potential back to the $4,200 zone before renewed buying interest emerges. Look for gold to continue taking cues from the silver market.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.707 (+3.75%)
5-Day Change: +$4.776 (+6.68%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $86.637
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $86.637
Weighted Alpha: +193.34
Silver is up nearly 7% today as extreme volatility continues. The white metal surged to a record high of $86.637 in Asian trading on Monday, before profit-taking and news of CME margin hikes triggered a sharp selloff in thin holiday conditions.
It's encouraging that silver was able to hold above support at $70.127/$70. However, the magnitude of recent volatility is likely to give pause to traders on both sides of the market heading into year-end. Clearly, that market went too far too fast.
That being said, the fundamentals remain broadly supportive, including strong industrial demand (especially in solar, EVs, and electronics), chronic supply deficits, massive speculative inflows, central bank interest, U.S. rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical hedging, and Chinese export controls slated to take effect on January 1.
Ideally, I'd like to see a period of consolidation before the market starts testing the upside again. A breach of the midpoint of Monday's range at $78.600 is needed to clear the way for renewed tests above $80. Above the latter, the 61.8% retracement level at $80.496 would attract. New record highs would target $90 and $91.009.
On the downside, intraday supports at $75.133 and $74/$73.873 protect the more important $70.127/$70 area. Penetration of the latter would suggest additional corrective potential toward the rising 20-day moving average, currently around $66.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Good morning. The precious metals are sharply lower in early U.S. trading.
U.S. calendar features Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Index, EIA Data.