Gold and silver start the week on the bid amid expectations of Fed easing
Outside Market Developments: Markets remain tilted toward risk-on ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. A 25 bps rate cut is widely anticipated, so focus will be on the economic projections and forward guidance.
While inflation remains above target, recent FedSpeak has highlighted downside risks to the labor market as a more pressing concern. The market is pricing in 66 bps of easing before year-end and more than 100 bps through June 2026.
The Bank of Canada will also announce policy on Wednesday. The BoC is expected to trim rates by 25 bps, amid
cooling inflation, a softening labor market, and tariff-related economic pressures.
Other important economic releases include U.S. retail sales and industrial production. Median expectations for retail sales are +0.3% and -0.1% for IP.
President Trump posted on TruthSocial that trade talks with China are going "VERY WELL!" A framework deal for TikTok to become a U.S.-owned company has reportedly been reached, and Trump indicated that he will speak with President Xi of China on Friday. Trade optimism is providing an additional boost to risk appetite.
Empire State Index fell 20.6 points to a three-month low of -8.7 in September, below expectations of 5.0, versus 11.9 in August. "New orders and shipments fell sharply," according to the New York Fed.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$3.21 (-0.09%)
5-Day Change: +$31.34 (+0.86%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,673.51
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $3,673.51
Weighted Alpha: +42.39
Gold starts the week on the bid, setting new record highs and moving within striking distance of $3,700. The market remains focused on this week's Fed decision, but the weak Empire State print bolsters the market's already dovish leanings.
The $3,700 target is within striking distance. Above that, the $3,730.44 (Fibonacci) and $3,743 (measuring objective) levels attract. The $3,800 and $4,000 levels are looking increasingly attractive.
Goldman Sachs believes gold could rise dramatically if Fed independence is compromised, driven by flight out of Treasuries and the dollar. "If 1% of the privately owned U.S. treasury market were to flow into gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000," according to a report released last week.
Global ETFs saw net inflows of 14.9 tonnes last week, led by European investors. North American investors took a bit of a breather, only adding 2.8 tonnes after strong inflows totalling 50.6 tonnes in the previous two weeks.
Minor chart support at $3,656.54/54.00 protects today's Asian low at $3,626.99. Thursday's low at $3,614.69 provides a good intervening barrier ahead of last week's low at $3,580.13.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.006 (+0.01%)
5-Day Change: +$1.118 (+2.70%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $42.460
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $42.460
Weighted Alpha: +44.41
Silver continues to march higher, setting another round of new 14-year highs. The white metal is up for a fourth straight session, and there have not been consecutive lower daily closes since August 14-15. 
Sights are on the $43 level next. Above that, chart levels at $43.352 (Sep'11 high) and $44.167 (Aug'11 high) are in play. Further out, the record highs in silver around $50 are looking increasingly attractive.
Initial support at $42.042/$42.017 is highlighted by today's early U.S. low and the Asian low. A minor chart point at $41.664 protects Friday's low at $41.405.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold firm near all-time highs as silver surges to 14-year highs above $42
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk appetite remains underpinned as the market looks ahead to Fed easing next week. While consumer inflation for August was slightly warmer than expected, the trade broadly interpreted this week's inflation data as benign, all but assuring a 25 bps cut.
More dovish prospects for the remainder of the year were tempered somewhat by the inflation data. Fed funds futures now imply 67 bps of easing by year-end, and 115 bps through June of next year.
The ECB believes rates are in a “good place,” after they remained on hold for a second straight meeting. With the Fed poised to start easing again, the interest rate differential with Europe will narrow and weigh on the dollar.
Today's economic calendar was light, with just the preliminary September reading on consumer sentiment. Michigan sentiment eased to a four-month low of 55.4, adding to worries about an economic slowdown recently stoked by recent signs of weakness in the labor market.
August retail sales data will be released next Tuesday. The trade is anticipating a gain of 0.3%.
Michicagn Sentiment (prelim) fell 2.8 points to a four-month low of 55.4 in September, below expectations of 58.5, versus 58.2 in August.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$17.32 (+0.48%)
5-Day Change: +$52.89 (+1.47%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,673.51
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $3,673.51
Weighted Alpha: +44.02
GOLD
Gold is trading higher today, within the range established early in the week, but close to record levels. The yellow metal is poised to notch a fourth straight higher weekly close after setting a fresh all-time high on Tuesday of $3,673.51.
Despite the overbought condition that developed in recent weeks, corrective activity has been limited. Expectations that the Fed will trim interest rates next week, for the first time since December, are helping to underpin gold. There are also reports of strong ETF inflows this week.
Tuesday's high at $3,673.51 stands in front of my next upside objectives at $3,700 (psychological), $3,730.44 (Fibonacci), and $3,743 (measuring objective). Above the latter, $3,800 would attract, and with each new high, $4,000 gold looks increasingly likely.
UBS Global Wealth Management upped its forecast for this year to $3,800 from $3,500 previously. They now expect gold to reach $3,900 by mid-2026. I think we could see $4,000 in Q1'26.
I was interviewed for a MarketWatch article that asks if it's too late to buy into the gold rally. The consensus is that it is not too late. While we will certainly see corrective setbacks in the short to near term, they will likely be viewed as buying opportunities.
Key factors driving the rally are ongoing de-dollarization, central bank buying, persistent inflation risks, worries about the U.S. fiscal situation, and democrat threats to shut down the government at the end of the month. Trade and geopolitical tensions also remain elevated.
Thursday's low at $3,614.69 protects secondary supports at $3,600 and the low for the week at $3,580.13. More substantial support is found at the $3,512.36/$3,500.00 zone, where the low from 4-Sep corresponds with the record high previous to the upside breakout. The 20-day moving average should rise to bolster this area in the week ahead.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.723 (+1.74%)
5-Day Change: +$0.928 (+2.26%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $42.460
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $42.460
Weighted Alpha: +43.99
Silver pushed decisively above $42 to end a fourth straight bullish week at new 14-year highs. The white metal is garnering support from strength in gold, expectations for lower interest rates, and dollar weakness.
With the important Fibonacci level at $41.610 now in the rearview mirror, considerable credence has been lent to the bullish scenario that calls for an eventual retest of the all-time highs around $50. Focus is now on intervening targets at $42.00, $43.352 (Sep'24 high), $44.167 (Aug'24 high), $44.743 (Fibonacci), and $45.00.
Silver is quite overbought at this point, so beware of corrective setbacks. Such action can be quite volatile at times.
Initial support is noted at $41.470/405. Thursday's low at $40.901 and Wednesday's low at $40.734 protect the low for the week at $40.547. The 20-day moving average is tracking higher but is currently below $40.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold consolidates gains near record levels amid heightened risk appetite
Outside Market Developments: This week's inflation data were mixed. While PPI cooled, headline CPI accelerated, and core CPI was steady. Nonetheless, the trade continues to believe the Fed will resume its easing campaign when the FOMC meets next week.
Initial jobless claims jumped 27k last week to 263k. That's the highest claims print since October 2022, stoking worries
about labor market weakness. Prospects for 75 bps in cuts by year-end have risen to 77.3%, versus 68.1% yesterday and 45.8% a week ago.
The rise in dovish Fed expectations amid robust corporate earnings – particularly in the tech sector – has underpinned risk appetite. Major U.S. stock indexes have set record highs today. The dollar remains defensive, with the dollar index setting a seven-week low earlier in the week.
Meanwhile, the ECB held rates steady, as was widely expected. The policy statement noted that "Inflation is currently at around the 2% medium-term target and the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged."
ECB President Lagarde emphasized a meeting-by-meeting strategy, noting that the disinflationary process is complete and risks to growth are more balanced, signaling the potential end of the rate-cut cycle. She believes that headwinds posed by tariffs and a stronger euro will fade next year.
CPI rose 0.4% in August, above expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.2% in July; 2.9% y/y, versus 2.7% in July. Core +0.3%, matching expectations, versus +0.3% in July; +3.1% y/y, unchanged from July.
Initial Jobless Claims jumped 27k to a multi-year high of 263k in the week ended 6-Sep, above expectations of 235k, versus a revised 236k in the previous week (was 237k). Continuing claims were unchanged at 1,939k in the 30-Aug week.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$18.46 (-0.51%)
5-Day Change: +$79.61 (+2.25%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,673.51
52-Week Range: $2,511.35 - $3,673.51
Weighted Alpha: +42.43
Gold is consolidating the push to all-time highs seen earlier in the week as strong risk appetite weighs on safe-haven interest. However, the yellow metal is holding near record levels, underpinned by persistent fiscal and geopolitical worries, Fed easing expectations, and a weaker dollar. 
Tuesday's high at $3,673.51 stands in front of my next upside objectives at $3,700 (psychological), $3,730.44 (Fibonacci), and $3,743 (measuring objective). Above the latter, $3,800 would attract, and with each new high, $4,000 gold looks increasingly likely.
Bloomberg notes that the inflation-adjusted record from 1980, when gold hit $850 (equivalent to about $3,590 today), has now been surpassed. This year's 40% increase has been driven by investor concerns over the US economic path, the metal's role as a hedge against inflation and a weakening dollar, as well as potential Fed rate cuts and robust buying from central banks.
Today's intraday low at $3,614.69 protects $3,600, and the low for the week at $3,580.13. More substantial support is found at the $3,512.36/$3,500.00 zone, where the low from 4-Sep corresponds with the record high previous to the breakout.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.107 (-0.26%)
5-Day Change: +$0.512 (+0.98%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $41.664
52-Week Range: $28.557 - $41.664
Weighted Alpha: +40.41
Silver has extended to fresh 14-year highs, buoyed by rate cut bets and a weaker dollar. The white metal is often viewed as a less expensive safe-haven alternative to high-flying gold.
The convincing breach of the important $41.610 Fibonacci level lends considerable credence to the bullish scenario that calls for an eventual push to the record highs around $50. Intervening barriers are noted at $42, $43, $43.352 (Sep'11 high), and $44.167 (Aug'11 high).
Minor intraday support at $41.470 protects the low for the day at $40.901. Wednesday's low at $40.734 should help keep the low for the week at $40.547 at bay.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold sets another round of record highs, spurred by geopolitical tensions, labor market weakness
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The focus this week is on inflation data and the implications for next week's FOMC meeting. The market consensus is for 0.3% month-on-month gains in both PPI (Wednesday) and CPI (Thursday).
Prospects for a September rate cut have increased in response to a second consecutive month of weak jobs data, highlighting growth risks. The BLS guidance released today reinforced the notion of labor market weakness by suggesting that job growth for the 12-month period through March was likely overstated by 911k.
At this point, at least a 25 bps cut at the September FOMC meeting seems all but assured, and there is a 10% chance of a 50 bps cut. Fed funds futures are pricing in 66 bps of easing by year-end.
If PPI and CPI show signs of accelerating inflation, the trade may walk back their dovish expectations somewhat for the remainder of the year. "Price stability remains the primary concern," said Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic last week.
Russia hit Kyiv on Sunday with the largest drone and missile strike of the war amid dimming hopes for a ceasefire and an eventual peace deal. President Trump confirmed on Monday that he is ready to deploy the "second phase" of sanctions against Russia.
Israel has confirmed that it targeted Hamas's political leadership in the Qatari capital of Doha. The attack has already been condemned by the UN and several Middle Eastern nations.
Meanwhile, Israel has ordered the total evacuation of Gaza City. "I say to the residents of Gaza, take this opportunity and listen to me carefully: you have been warned — get out of there!" said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel seems increasingly committed to the complete destruction of Hamas, making a ceasefire unlikely.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in August to a seven-month high of 100.8, below expectations of 100.0, versus 100.3 in July. “Optimism increased slightly in August with more owners reporting stronger sales expectations and improved earnings," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg
BLS Payrolls Guidance -911k, the largest revision on record, versus -818k in Mar'24.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$16.36 (+0.45%)
5-Day Change: +$121.18 (+3.43%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,659.10
52-Week Range: $2,500.63 - $3,659.10
Weighted Alpha: +44.02
Gold
Gold has pushed to another round of new all-time highs, spurred by safe-haven interest. Heightened geopolitical tensions, rising growth risks stemming from signs of labor market weakness, Fed easing bets, and a seven-week low in the dollar index are helping to perpetuate the rally. The yellow metal has set record highs for three sessions in a row, five of the last six.
Investors are contributing to the rally, as evidenced by solid ETF inflows over the past two weeks. Global ETFs saw net inflows of 35.3 tonnes in the 29-Aug week and 36.5 tonnes in the 5-Sep week, the strongest since April.
Sights are on the $3,700 psychological barrier next. Above that, a Fibonacci objective at $3,730.44 and the measuring objective off the triangle breakout at $3,743 attract.
Today's early U.S. low at $3,627.49 marks initial support. The $3,608.89/$3,600.00 zone provides a secondary barrier ahead of the low for the week at $3,580.13.
Gold is quite overextended at this point, so there is potential for corrective setbacks. Hot inflation numbers later this week could temper Fed easing expectations, triggering profit-taking. However, retreats into the range are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.122 (-0.30%)
5-Day Change: +$0.260 (+0.64%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $41.664
52-Week Range: $28.080 - $41.664
Weighted Alpha: +40.28
Silver is underperforming today, weighed by heightened growth risks, but remains confined to Monday's range. However, expectations of a Fed rate cut next week, strength in gold, and a soft dollar underpin the white metal.
Silver reached a 14-year high at $41.664 on Monday, registering a slight penetration of a key retracement level at $41.610 (78.6% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high at $49.752 to $11.703). Another new cycle high would lend considerable confidence to the bullish scenario that favors an eventual challenge of the $50 zone.
Intervening targets are noted at $42.00, $43.352 (Sep'24 high), and $44.167 (Aug'24 high). Like gold, recent gains in silver have created overbought conditions. However, the supply/demand dynamics remain broadly supportive.
Monday's low at $40.547 marks first support. Last Thursday's low at $40.413 should help protect the $40 zone.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
