Blog posts tagged with 'platinum'

Gold and silver ease as dollar rebounds modestly

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk sentiment is elevated to start the new week, supported by less hawkish Fed expectations in the wake of last week's nonfarm payrolls miss. Payrolls grew just 57k in June, below expectations of 110k. There were also -74k in back-month revisions.

While certainly disappointing, it was a fourth straight month of jobs growth. The jobless rate ticked down to 4.2%, the lowest in a year. However, that was primarily due to a drop in the labor force participation rate to 61.5% (lowest since March 2021).

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke before the report came out on Thursday, calling the job market “steady” and once again emphasizing that the Fed’s priority is bringing inflation back to 2%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly used the word “stable” to describe the labor market and went on to say that “one report isn’t going to break this view.”

This aligns with the Warsh-Fed’s vow to deliver price stability. Prospects for a 25 bps rate hike at the July FOMC meeting are edging back up, after falling to 18.8% on Thursday. Fed funds futures continue to price in at least one rate hike by year-end, underpinning the dollar.

The fragile US/Iran ceasefire continues to hold, and indirect negotiations in Doha are ongoing. Iran reportedly continues to push a toll scheme for the Strait of Hormuz. I can't imagine any situation in which President Trump would agree to that as part of a broader peace deal.

A major Russian missile and drone attack struck Kyiv overnight, killing at least 11 people and injuring dozens more.
Moscow framed it as payback for Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, reinforcing Putin’s narrative of fighting “NATO aggression” to his domestic audience. The attack comes just a day ahead of the NATO summit in Turkey.

The Fed's path is likely to remain the market's focus this week. Minutes from the June meeting come out on Wednesday. We'll also hear from the Fed's Waller, Williams, and Logan. The NATO summit will generate headlines, especially with President Trump in attendance. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$20.05 (-0.48%)
5-Day Change: +$138.09 (+3.44%)
YTD Range: $3,960.16 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,270.50 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +12.79

Gold starts the week modestly lower after briefly ticking above $4,200 in overseas trade. The yellow metal got a boost last week after the weak payrolls print led to short covering amid tempered expectations for a rate hike this year.



Arguably, the trade overreacted to the jobs number with the Fed still squarely focused on taming inflation. Fed funds futures continue to portend at least one 25-bps rate hike this year, which provides some support for the greenback.

With the rise above the 20-day moving average, there is scope for further corrective gains toward the trendline at $4,341. However, the $4,381.78 high from 17-Jun is likely to remain protected. Heightened geopolitical tensions could help that cause.

In other words, I'm not convinced that the low is in, and the recent gains are likely to be viewed as a selling opportunity. A breach of Friday's low at $4,121.57 would shift focus to the halfway back point of the recent rally at $4,073.61. Below the latter, look for a return to the $4,000 zone with potential for another run at the low for the year at $3,945.52.

Heightened belief that the Fed will remain on hold, or more importantly, that a rate cut is back on the table, would put the brakes on the recent dollar rally. That would return a measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.306 (-0.49%)
5-Day Change: +$3.518 (+6.03%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $36.201 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +35.17

Silver hit a three-week high in overseas trading before retreating into the range. The streak of higher daily closes seems likely to end at four sessions as the market shrugs off the jobs miss, and the dollar recovers somewhat.



The lack of momentum on the recent gains is suggestive of corrective activity. The bear camp will also be encouraged by the fact that the 20-day MA has contained the upside thus far.

A breach of Friday's low at $60.924 would favor a return to the $60 zone with potential to the 50% retracement level at $59.466. Below that, the small double bottom at $55.727/666 would be back in play.

While scope remains for fresh lows toward Fibonacci retracement levels at $53.695 and $53.340. Were seeing some renewed buying interest in the semiconductor sector amid reviving optimism that the AI investment boom has more room to run. This could boost capex expectations and brighten the picture for industrial demand for silver

The multiyear supply deficit and expectations for the ongoing expansion of industrial demand paint a long-term bullish picture. However, silver really needs to regain the $90 level to re-establish confidence in the dominant uptrend. That's a long way away.

Volatile trading below $75 is likely to prevail for the remainder of the summer, with many still smarting from silver's fall from grace earlier in the year. Given the supply/demand picture, a more than 50% plunge from the record high of $121.630 will be tempting when trading desks are fully staffed again after the summer holidays, and retail investors can look at the chart with some degree of confidence that the low is in.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver rebound modestly after posting sharp monthly and quarterly losses

Outside Market Developments: U.S. and Iranian teams continue to hold technical talks in Doha, Qatar, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, focusing on restarting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and solidifying the ceasefire. Tensions persist over key issues like Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and regional security.

Iran has ruled out direct face-to-face meetings with US envoys there, preferring indirect channels, while both sides insist they remain committed to implementing the MOD and advancing toward a broader peace deal. Consequently, oil remains under pressure near four-month lows.

In his speech today at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh acknowledged some recent cooling in inflation expectations. While he avoided providing forward guidance, he reaffirmed that the central bank will deliver price stability, with the goal of returning inflation to the 2% target.

"We've all looked around, and we've seen that prices are too high... If there were people... who thought that this central bank was going to be comfortable with an inflation objective above 2%, well, I guess they'd be disappointed. We're going to deliver price stability in the US," said Warsh.

Fed funds futures continue to price at least one 25 bps rate hike by year-end. About 40 bps of tightening is implied through June 2027.

The manufacturing sector continued to expand in June, but at a slower pace amid easing price pressures. ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 53.3 in June, below expectations of 54.0, versus 54.0 in May. Construction spending rose 0.1% in May,  below expectations of +0.2%, versus a revised +0.3% in April.

ADP private payrolls rose 98k in June, below expectations of +113k, versus +122k in May. Focus now shifts to Thursday's nonfarm payrolls report, where payroll growth of 110k is expected. The jobless rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$9.39 (-0.23%)
5-Day Change: +$86.78 (+2.17%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,270.50 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +10.89

Gold is recovering modestly after reaching a new eight-month low on Tuesday, ending June with a 12% loss. It was the fourth straight lower monthly close. The yellow metal ended Q2 with a 14% loss.

 

Mixed economic data ahead of tomorrow's big jobs report is perhaps bolstering safe-haven interest. However, Warsh reiterated the pledge to "deliver price stability" in a speech today, reinforcing higher-for-longer rate expectations that have been underpinning the dollar.

If June nonfarm payrolls significantly miss expectations on the downside, I'd expect the trade to start reversing out some of the recent hawkishness. On the other hand, if the labor market continues to display resilience, gold will likely remain under pressure.

Scope remains for a downside extension to chart/Fibonacci support at $3,887.03/$3,886.02. Tuesday's new low for the year at $3,945.52 provides intervening support that closely corresponds to the lower limit of the large descending wedge pattern.

Today's rebound to new highs for the week is mildly encouraging to the bull camp, suggesting scope for a challenge of the declining 20-day MA at $4,183.05. Additional resistance is marked by last week's high is $4,218.41. However, short-term upticks are still likely to be met with selling interest.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.338 (-0.58%)
5-Day Change: +$2.716 (+4.73%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $35.918 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +34.25

Silver saw massive losses of 22% in June and Q2, as the market corrected from the relentless rally of 2025 that extended into January 2026. Besides simple profit taking, the white metal was weighted by war-related uncertainty, hawkish Fed expectations, and a firming dollar.



Consolidative to mildly corrective activity that has emerged since the seven-month low at $55.666 was established last week has not been terribly impressive. Prices remain confined to the 24-Jun range. While a case can be made for a small double bottom, the developing bear flag appears to be the more noticeable technical feature.

Scope remains for a downside extension to challenge Fibonacci levels at $53.695 and $53.340. Confidence in that scenario will be bolstered upon a short-term breach of the $55.727/666 lows.

If the $62.350 high from 24-Jun gives way first, a challenge of the declining 20-day MA at $64.512 would become likely. More substantial resistance in the $70 area is likely to remain well protected.

Tech/AI valuation worries seen earlier in the week appear to have faded, which bolsters industrial demand expectations. With the market in its sixth year of supply deficit, the realities of supply/demand are seen as structurally bullish. Eventually, the long-term uptrend should reassert itself.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver lower with focus on jobs data in the holiday-shortened week

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Middle East tensions flared over the weekend, testing the fragile US-Iran ceasefire/MoU signed just weeks ago. Iran attacked commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz as well as US-related targets in Bahrain and Kuwait. The U.S. conducted retaliatory airstrikes targeting missile/drone storage sites, coastal radar, air defenses, and military infrastructure near the Strait and on Qeshm Island.

Amid the weekend strikes, President Trump warned that if Iran doesn’t comply with the ceasefire and deal terms, “there may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started.” On Sunday, both sides agreed to halt further attacks and resume talks, which have moved from Switzerland to Qatar, on Tuesday.

Israel continued limited strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. The IDF stated the actions were in response to threats from Hezbollah operatives. A US-brokered framework deal between Israel and Lebanon faces rejection from Hezbollah.

Israel has made clear it will not fully withdraw from its security/buffer zone in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is significantly degraded or disarmed. Continued activity complicates US-Iran peace talks and strains Lebanon’s fragile government and economy.

This week's focus will be on U.S. jobs data. The June nonfarm payrolls report comes out on Thursday. The market is expecting jobs growth of +110k and steady unemployment at 4.3%.

Evidence of ongoing resilience in the U.S. labor market will fortify higher-for-longer Fed expectations, underpinning yields and the dollar. A significant payrolls miss could prompt the trade to start pricing out the probability of a rate hike before year-end.

Housing market data is also on tap this week. Activity has been sluggish this year, with elevated mortgage rates continuing to weigh on affordability and demand.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$35.06 (-0.86%)
5-Day Change: -$146.19 (-3.49%)
YTD Range: $3,960.16 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,256.02 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +9.32

Gold starts the week on its back foot amid tempered market reaction to weekend hostilities in the Middle East and news that peace talks will continue this week. Market activity remains contained within the range that was established last Wednesday.  



With the yellow metal well below the major moving averages and new 13-month lows last week, the downside remains vulnerable. Cyclical pressure, diminished geopolitical and inflation risks, and a firm dollar continue to push investors to the sidelines.

Global ETFs saw net outflows of 38.3 tonnes last week. It was the biggest outflow since the 30-Sep'22 week.


Scope is seen for further tests below $4,000. Minor chart supports at $3983.74 and $3,964.23 protect the low for the year at $3,960.16. Penetration of the latter would lend credence to the bearish scenario that suggests potential to a pair of Fibonacci levels at $3,887.03/86.02.

A rebound above $4,114.73 (24-Jun high) would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, favoring further corrective gains toward the declining 20-day moving average at $4,225.13. More important resistance marked by the mid-June high at $4,381.78 and the 50- and 200-day MA's above $4,400 look to be well protected.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.133 (-1.92%)
5-Day Change: -$6.587 (-10.12%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $35.610 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +29.19

Silver is consolidating recent losses below $60. The downside remains vulnerable in the face of higher-for-longer Fed expectations, a firm dollar, and the most recent rise in bearish tech/AI sentiment.

 

Short-term support is well defined by the recent low at $55.666/527. A breach of this level would clear the way for a downside extension to the Fibonacci retracement levels at $53.695 and $53.340.

On the upside, last Wednesday's high at $62.350 is protected by the previous lows at $61.036/533. Additional resistances are marked by the declining 20-day MA at $65.948, last week's high at $67.023, and the still rising 200-day MA at $69.929.

While silver has fallen more than 50% from the $121.630 record high that was set in late January, the realities of supply and demand remain structurally bullish for the long term. Persistent global supply deficits, combined with surging industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, AI data centers, and electronics, are expected to lead to an eventual resumption of the bull trend.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver correct ahead of the weekend, but downside remains vulnerable

Outside Market Developments: U.S. markets showed notable divergence this week amid ongoing tech-sector pressure and shifting macroeconomic signals. The tech-heavy Nasdaq faced repeated selling, logging multiple down days as investors rotated out of high-valuation names amid AI monetization concerns, monetary policy uncertainty, and despite Micron's blowout quarterly earnings.

The broader S&P 500 posted modest net declines, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average proved more resilient with small gains on several sessions, highlighting strength in non-tech sectors. Key influences included a more hawkish Fed stance, still accelerating inflation in May, easing geopolitical tensions that drove sharp declines in oil prices, and mixed economic data. Overall, the week reflected a risk-off mood with continued rotation from mega-cap growth into more defensive and cyclical areas.

The trade continues to digest last week's more hawkish rotation of the Warsh-led Fed and the resulting higher yields and stronger dollar. However, the trade is probably anticipating some inflation relief in the short-term, thanks to the tumble in oil prices.

The probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the July FOMC meeting has declined to 29.9% from 38.5% a week ago. Fed funds futures are pricing just 28 bps of tightening by year-end, and 32 bps into next June.

While the trade is positioning for higher-for-longer rates, arguably, they overreacted to the Fed's vow last week to deliver "price stability." FedSpeak this week highlighted that inflation indeed remains the primary concern and that current policy is appropriate, but the speakers avoided signaling imminent rate hikes or cuts.

The market is curious to know what the Warsh Fed's communication policy will look like. During his post-FOMC presser, Warsh said something that I strongly agree with: “I think financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data. I think the financial markets work less efficiently when they ask the question: ‘How will the Federal Reserve react to that incoming information?’” Trade off the data, not on what you think the Fed might think of the data.

We'll likely have further clarity on what the new Fed will look like once Warsh's five task forces deliver their findings this Fall and into year-end. Details of the task forces are as follows:

1. Fed Communications: Reviewing how the Fed conveys information to markets and the public (including the dot plot and press conferences).
2. Fed’s Balance Sheet: Examining the size, composition, and policy around the Fed’s ~$6.7 trillion balance sheet and the ample reserves regime.
3. Use and Reliance on Existing Data Sources: Looking for better, more timely, and market-driven data to inform policy decisions.
4. Productivity and Jobs: Studying productivity trends (including the impact of AI) and the labor market in the current economy.
5. Fed’s Inflation Frameworks: Re-examining the Fed’s approach to understanding inflation and achieving price stability.

This week’s US-Iran talks continued to drive optimism about a potential peace deal. The parties reportedly agreed on a roadmap to reach a comprehensive deal within the next 60 days, including working groups on nuclear issues, oversight, sanctions relief, de-escalation in Lebanon, and stability in the Strait.

Iran reportedly carried out a drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz today, which President Trump described as a "foolish violation" of the ceasefire agreement. Calmer heads seem to be prevailing, with peace talks expected to resume next week.

Besides Middle East headline, markets will focus mainly on housing data, labor market signals, and early-June employment indicators in the week ahead. Key releases include the S&P Case-Shiller home price index and consumer confidence on Tuesday, followed by JOLTS job openings, ADP private payrolls, and ISM manufacturing PMI mid-week.

These reports will help investors gauge the health of the housing market, consumer sentiment, and labor demand amid ongoing Fed uncertainty and the recent tech-led pullback in shares. Overall, it’s a moderately busy week for data that could influence rate expectations heading into the 250th anniversary of Independence Day. Most U.S. markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, although it is not a Fed/bank holiday.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$28.23 (+0.70%)
5-Day Change: -$110.71 (-2.66%)
YTD Range: $3,960.16 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,256.02 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +10.83

Gold is rebounding ahead of the weekend, buoyed by some profit-taking and perhaps some heightened haven interest amid rotation out of high-valuation stocks and the Iranian ceasefire violation. A tempering of hawkish Fed expectations has also knocked the dollar off the 13-month highs set on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the yellow metal is poised for its fourth straight lower weekly close – and likely its fourth consecutive monthly decline – a streak not seen since 2022.



Upticks over the last two sessions have been limited to Wednesday's range, suggesting downside risk remains. This week's tests below $4,000 continue to suggest potential to chart/Fibonacci support at $3,887.03/86.02. Intervening supports are marked by recent lows at $3983.74 and $3,964.23/$3,960.16.

If initial resistance at $4,114.73 gives way first, look for follow-through corrective activity to the $4,200 zone. The falling 20-day moving average should reinforce the latter in the week ahead.

In advance of the return of cyclical gold strength later this summer, evidence that central banks are taking advantage of the price drop to ramp up reserve building is probably the bull camp's best hope in the near term. The World Gold Council will report central bank purchase data for May early in July.

Investors were almost assuredly liquidating ETF positions this week. If confirmed, it would be the eighth week of outflows out of the last ten. Global investors are unlikely to return in force until we start seeing some price strength.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.634 (+1.10%)
5-Day Change: -$6.737 (-10.40%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $35.610 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +30.23

Silver is trading higher within Wednesday's range on short-covering ahead of the weekend and a holiday-shortened but data-heavy week ahead. The setback in the dollar is providing some additional support. The white metal will post its seventh straight weekly decline.



This week's plunge below $58 and the 4-Dec’25 low at $56.509 leaves two important Fibonacci levels at $53.695 and $53.340 vulnerable to tests. The ongoing rotation out of tech/AI stocks is heightening concerns about sector capex and its impact on industrial silver demand.

That said, sector pessimism has historically been short-lived, as underlying technological progress continues at a rapid pace. Micron’s strong earnings helped ease some of the negativity, but next week’s light earnings calendar offers little near-term catalyst to rekindle optimism.

Short-term upticks are likely to attract further selling interest ahead of the previous lows at $61.036/533 and Wednesday's high at $62.350. The declining 20-day MA at $66.804 looks to be well protected and should keep the high for the week at $67.023 at bay.

Silver's long-term outlook remains structurally bullish over the next 5-10 years. Persistent global supply deficits, combined with surging industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, AI data centers, and electronics, are expected to support significantly higher prices.

Most analyst consensus points to $80-$140+ per ounce by 2030, with base-case targets around $100, though forecasts vary widely depending on the pace of green energy adoption and monetary conditions. Short-term volatility from macro factors like interest rates and tech sector sentiment is likely, but the fundamental tailwinds favor the underlying uptrend.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver tumble as strong jobs data dims rate cut hopes, and Middle East tensions remain elevated 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 172k in May, well above market expectations of +85k. Back-month revisions were +93k. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.3% m/m, but the annual pace of earnings growth slowed to 3.4% y/y, versus 3.6% in April.

These data are reflective of ongoing resilience in the labor market and bode well for continued economic growth. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q2 is +3.0%, while the latest Philly Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters projects more modest Q2 growth of 2.1%.

Hezbollah has rejected the terms of the latest ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, further eroding hopes for a broader peace deal. Iran reiterated strong support for Hezbollah and is now demanding full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. That's not going to happen, and Israel is continuing drone/air strikes in southern Lebanon.

Iran claims it fired warning shots at a U.S. Navy destroyer in the Gulf of Oman, forcing it to withdraw. CentCom quickly disavowed the claim, saying, "Iran is lying. U.S. military assets at sea continue to fly, sail, and operate safely and unimpeded.”

President Trump continues to express optimism about a peace deal, but tensions persist and negotiations seem to have stalled. The U.S. maintains the ceasefire with Iran is holding but has conducted "self-defense" strikes. Tehran says talks are suspended or complicated by ongoing Israel-Hezbollah fighting. IDF actions in Lebanon raised the ire of President Trump, prompting a heated phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu earlier in the week.

While oil is well off the April/May highs, Brent crude is still up nearly 40% from a year ago and continues to stoke inflation worries. That, combined with ongoing signs of os a resilient economy, fosters higher-for-longer rate expectations, which is providing support for the dollar. The dollar index jumped to eight-week highs to pressure 100.

The Fed is still widely expected to hold steady at the June FOMC meeting, the first presided over by new chairman Kevin Warsh. However, Fed funds futures now reflect scope for 23.5 bps of tightening by year-end.

The market will be focused on U.S. inflation data in the week ahead. May CPI will be released on Wednesday, and the market is expecting acceleration to 4.2% (headline) and 2.9% (core) from 3.8% and 2.8% in April. May PPI comes out on Thursday. Headline PPI is expected to accelerate to 6.5% y/y, versus +6.0% in April, while core PPI is forecasted to hold steady at 5.2%.

Hot inflation readings could bolster Fed rate hike expectations next week, driving bullish moves in yields and the dollar. However, Middle East headlines continue to have the potential to override these fundamentals.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$8.84 (-0.20%)
5-Day Change: -$71.85 (-1.58%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,256.02 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +27.03

Gold has tumbled to ten-week lows after strong jobs data further diminished hopes for a Fed rate cut this year, driving yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Persistent Middle East tensions added to the selling pressure. The yellow metal is heading for a roughly 3% weekly loss and its first close below the 200-day moving average since late 2023.



Good economic news is bad news for gold right now, as strong jobs data further reduces the odds of a Fed rate cut this year and even raises the possibility of a future hike. When combined with persistent Middle East tensions that are supporting oil prices and inflation expectations, today’s sell-off comes as little surprise – especially during a seasonally weak period for the metal.

Looking ahead, progress toward a Middle East peace deal or signs of cooling inflation could revive buying interest next week. The latter appears unlikely in the near term, meaning developments in the Middle East will likely dictate gold’s direction in the week ahead.

The convincing breach of the 200-day MA shifts focus to the $4,268.92 Fibonacci level initially, but a retest of the March low at $4,100.32 must now be considered. If the market sets new lows for the year, the $4,000 zone would be in play.

The falling 20-day moving average at $4,538.56 must be regained to ease downside pressure somewhat, favoring further consolidation within the $5,595.02/$4,100.3 range. Intervening resistances are noted at $4,367.12, $4,400.00, and $4,443.95.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.021 (-1.38%)
5-Day Change: -$2.164 (-2.87%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $35.369 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +82.75

Silver plunged more than 7% on Friday, weighed by weakness in gold and a stronger dollar. The white metal is poised for about an 8% loss for the week, and its fourth consecutive lower weekly close.



There have been growing signs of AI fatigue in early June, which may be contributing to a bit of a headwind for silver.
While AI-related capex and data center buildout remain part of a broadly positive narrative, sky-high valuations pose risk, prompting investor rotation toward less aggressive stances heading into summer.

Silver has fallen to approach its 200-day moving average at $68.124 after failing to climb into the upper half of this year's range in May. A breach of the 200-day MA would highlight the $67.091 Fibonacci level. Below that, chart supports at 66.763 (26-Mar low) and $66.030 (24-Mar low) would be in play. While the March low at $61.036 still looks to be protected, bull camp confidence has certainly taken a hit today.

A rebound above $72.488/$72.630 is needed to ease downside pressure and reestablish a more consolidative tone within the lower half of the broad range. The probability of such a rebound will hinge on Middle East headlines and U.S. inflation data next week.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold retreats on Middle East escalation as oil and dollar rise in reaction

Outside Market Developments: Kinetic action in the Middle East is undermining hopes for a lasting U.S.-Iran peace deal. Israel's continued campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon has created a noticeable wedge between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu – a rift that could encourage Iran to hold out longer in negotiations.

The U.S. continues to strike Iranian military targets around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has responded with missile/drone attacks on US-linked targets in the Gulf, including Kuwait and Bahrain. Flight operations at Kuwait International Airport are suspended following a drone attack that resulted in casualties.

At this point, it's tough to argue that the ceasefire is holding. Repeated tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran, as well as Israel and Hezbollah, continue to erode the fragile truce and complicate efforts to negotiate a lasting peace.

Today's ADP report showed solid private-sector hiring in May. Private employers added 122k jobs, beating expectations of 117k and marking the strongest gain since January 2025. The print reflects ongoing labor market resilience heading into Friday’s official BLS jobs report.

Today's combination of resilient U.S. jobs data and escalating tensions in the Middle East is reinforcing hawkish Fed expectations. This dual pressure is keeping markets pricing in very high odds of no change at the 17-Jun FOMC meeting, and dimming expectations for any rate cut this year.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$29.10 (+0.95%)
5-Day Change: -$5.94 (-0.13%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,256.02 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +26.31

Gold has slipped to new lows for the week, weighed by rising Middle East tensions that have lifted both oil and the dollar. The yellow metal is currently retesting its 200-day moving average during the historically weak cyclical period.



Geopolitical risk is bullish for gold in theory, but the resulting upward pressure on oil, heightened inflation expectations, and hawkish Fed signals have been driving selling pressure since the war began. In light of the most recent escalation, this trend seems likely to continue, although the March low at $4,100.32 still appears well protected at this point.

A close below the 200-day MA at $4,434.22 today would confirm a weaker tone within the lower half of the broad range, shifting focus to the $4,268.92 Fibonacci level initially. If Middle East de-escalation continues to be stymied, the $4,100.32 low would be vulnerable to a challenge.

On the other hand, revived hopes for peace and retracement in oil would likely set a more favorable tone within the range. A short-term move back above $4,600, and more importantly, a close above the 50-day MA at $4,632.59 would bode well for a return to the $4,800 zone, where the 100-day MA currently corresponds closely with the midpoint of the range.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.781 (-1.04%)
5-Day Change: -$0.920 (-1.23%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $34.272 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +84.88

Silver is being pressured midweek by rising geopolitical tensions, a firmer dollar, and weaker gold. While new lows for the week have been established, last week's range is intact, with tech/AI optimism continuing to provide some underpinning.



Last week's low at $71.808 is vulnerable to a retest, and penetration would shift focus to the April low at $70.893. Below the latter, the $70 zone and the rising 200-day MA at $67.808 would be in play.

A rebound above $75 would be mildly encouraging, but a close above the 50-day MA ($76.155 today) and breach of Tuesday's high at $77.002 is needed to shift focus to the 20-day MA at $78.095. Above the latter, the 25-May high at $78.820 would be the attraction. This more bullish scenario is very much contingent on revived Middle East de-escalation optimism.

PGMs

Platinum and palladium fell to multi-week lows today amid broader precious metals weakness, higher yields, and a stronger dollar. However, both metals remain well above year-ago levels (platinum +75%+, palladium +33%)
due to persistent structural supply deficits and resilient industrial demand.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver slide as de-escalation optimism wanes once again

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The latest round of optimism about Middle East de-escalation that emerged last week has evaporated once again. The U.S. conducted "self-defense" airstrikes on Iranian radar, drone command centers, and military sites over the weekend, after Iran shot down a U.S. drone over international waters. Iran has suspended negotiations citing ceasefire violations, particularly Israel's expanded ground and air campaign against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.

In a recent TruthSocial post, President Trump maintained that “Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us.” However, investors are growing increasingly weary of the repeated swings in peace deal expectations.

Oil prices have rebounded on the last increase in geopolitical tensions, stoking persistent inflation concerns and expectations for higher-for-longer rates. The next FOMC meeting is still more than two weeks away on June 16-17. It will be the first meeting under the leadership of new chairman Kevin Warsh. Fed funds futures suggest a 99.6% probability of steady policy.

Stocks remain underpinned near record highs by strong investor enthusiasm for AI, with capital flowing into transformative technologies and next-generation infrastructure. Nvidia is climbing on its new RTX Spark PC chip, lifting partners like Microsoft, Arm, Dell, and HP.

Focus this week will be on U.S. employment data, culminating with the May nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The trade is expecting an increase of 78k and a steady jobless rate, suggestive of ongoing labor market resilience. Geopolitical developments around U.S.-Iran negotiations will also remain a major focus.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$36.30 (-0.80%)
5-Day Change: -$106.48 (-2.33%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,25602 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +26.85

Gold begins the week on the back foot, weighed by rising Middle East tensions, higher oil and a bounce in the dollar. Last week's optimism about a deal between the U.S. and Iran failed to garner a rebound above $4,600, and that optimism has dissipated once again.

 

The market is being squeezed between the declining 20- and 50-day moving averages and the rising 200-day MA. This leaves the yellow metal firmly entrenched in the lower half of the $5,595.02/$4,100.32 range that was established earlier this year, with the next move within the range likely to be dictated by the latest batch of Middle East headlines.

The 20-day MA now corresponds closely with last week's high at $4,594.43. A breach of this level would highlight the 50-day at $4,633.45 initially. Above that, the May high at $4,773.13 and the 100-day MA at $4,803.59 would be in play.

On the other hand, a short-term close below the 200-day MA at $4,423.48 would suggest potential for a downside extension beyond last week's low at $4,367.12. Sights would be on the $4,268.92 Fibonacci level initially, but a retest of the $4,100.32 low would have to be considered at that point. 

Malaysia has announced a 10% import duty on LBMA gold bars of .9999 fineness. Gold jewelry and non-LBMA bars are reportedly unaffected. However, this is the country's first-ever import duty on gold bullion. While the new duty doesn't take effect until next week, it is already disrupting some shipments.

The new Malay tax is thought to be driven primarily by a desire to regulate large inflows of physical gold, preserve foreign exchange reserves, and curb speculative/import-driven demand. While Malaysia is currently running a current account surplus, surging gold imports were putting pressure on the goods trade balance.

India hiked its import duties on gold and silver in May to an effective rate of 15%, seeking to curb imports and support the rupee. The new duty regimes are likely to significantly dampen physical demand in both India and Malaysia by raising domestic prices and reducing affordability.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.407 (+0.54%)
5-Day Change: -$3.652 (-4.68%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $32.978 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +87.30

Silver remains well contained within its recent range, weighed today by heightened geopolitical concerns and a firmer dollar, but underpinned by the tech/AI tailwind. However, after three consecutive lower weekly closes, the technical bias is tilted to the downside.



The inability of the white metal to maintain gains above $75 leaves last week's low at $71.808 vulnerable to a retest. Minor intervening support is noted at $73.585 and $73.153.

A close above $75 is needed to set a more favorable short-term close, shifting focus to the 50-day MA at $76.031 and the 20-day MA at $78.172. Good chart resistance at $78.820/886 is currently well protected.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold firms on revived de-escalation optimism, while silver lags

Outside Market Developments: Risk appetite is elevated heading into the weekend amid the latest rebound in optimism over Middle East de-escalation. On Thursday, U.S. and Iranian negotiators reportedly reached a tentative memorandum of understanding to extend the current ceasefire by 60 days, fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift the U.S. naval blockade.

Emphasis on the word "tentative." We've seemingly been on the verge of a peace deal numerous times over the course of the war, only to see them fizzle. The latest deal still requires final approval from President Trump and confirmation from Iran.

Negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program will begin with that sign-off. Given the red-line nature of U.S. demands on Iran's nuclear capabilities, this suggests there is still plenty of potential for any deal to unravel.

There's a growing perception that Iran is attempting to drag negotiations out until the pressures of global energy prices and broad inflation force President Trump to cut a more Iran-favorable deal. Trump, on the other hand, likely wants to wrap the war up quickly to hopefully preserve GOP congressional majorities. The risk is that he may see further attacks on Iran as the more expedient option.

Stocks remain well bid near record highs on the hopes for peace. Zerohedge amusingly noted, "Futures Hit Another Record High After Pricing In Same 'Iran Deal' Every Day For The Past Month."

Stocks are also garnering support from tech/AI earnings momentum. Dell shares surged after reporting a massive earnings beat on Thursday, which was driven largely by explosive AI server revenue. This prompted an upgrade to full-year guidance.

U.S. stock buoyancy and AI/tech optimism do attract foreign capital inflows into U.S. equities, which requires foreigners to buy dollars and provides underlying support for the greenback. Recent TIC data shows consistent net foreign inflows into U.S. assets.

Markets interpreted the April PCE data (released Thursday) as showing stubbornly elevated but largely in-line inflation. Headline PCE inflation came in at +3.8% y/y (hottest since May 2023) and core at +3.3% y/y (highest since October 2023).

While multiweek lows in oil further tamp inflation worries and rate-hike expectations, the dollar index remains in the upper half of this year's range. A breach of formidable chart/Fibonacci support at 97.62/50 is needed to confirm a weaker tone within that range.

Next week, markets will focus on fresh U.S. economic data, particularly the May employment report on Friday, alongside ISM Manufacturing (Monday), JOLTS (Tuesday), and ADP private payrolls (Wednesday). These releases will help gauge the health of the U.S. labor market with implications for the policy outlook. Upcoming FedSpeak may provide additional clues, although the new Fed chair favors less talk, lest policymakers become "prisoners of their own words."

Middle East headlines and corporate results are expected to remain key themes driving risk sentiment. Further progress or setbacks on the U.S.-Iran framework in particular will move markets.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$42.52 (+0.95%)
5-Day Change: +$11.99 (+0.27%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,251.28 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +30.12

Gold appears on track to notch a higher weekly close after falling to a nine-week low on Thursday. It would be the first higher weekly close in three. Nonetheless, gold seems likely to register its third consecutive lower monthly close.



Gold probed briefly below the 200-day moving average earlier in the week, but rebounded on revived hopes for a peace deal. However, I would categorize the rebound thus far as somewhat tentative, with the market having grown weary of the deal/no-deal swings in recent weeks.

Short-term closes above the 20-day MA at $4,587.45 and the 50-day at $4,632.58 are needed to establish a more bullish technical tone. Such a move would target the $4,686.24 Fibonacci level initially, but potential would be back to the May high at $4,773.13. Beyond the latter, the $5,000 zone would be back in play.

On the other hand, a failure to move convincingly – and sustain gains – above $4,600 would leave the 200-day MA vulnerable to further tests. Certainly, setbacks to de-escalation have the potential to put the yellow metal back under pressure.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.221 (-0.29%)
5-Day Change: +$0.120 (+0.16%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $32.763 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +105.19

Silver is little changed on the day, teetering on the verge of a third consecutive lower weekly close. However, the white metal does appear poised to end the string of lower monthly closes at two. As of this writing, silver is up about 2.5% in May.



Today's lack of upside follow-through is somewhat of a concern given the ongoing tech/AI outperformance, and in particular the big Dell beat. I would have expected silver to be leading on the rebound. I'll be watching the gold/silver ratio closely next week.

That being said, the ability of silver to hold above $70 this week is encouraging to the bull camp. A close above the 50-day MA at $75.925 would bode well for tests of the 20-day at $78.088 and good chart resistance at $78.820/886. Penetration of the latter is needed to shift attention back to the $80 zone.

If silver can't maintain gains above $75 early next week, Thursday's low at $71.808 would be vulnerable to a retest. Minor intervening supports are noted at $74.629. $73.585 and $73.153.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver slide on lingering peace deal skepticism, firmer yields, and dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets are tilted toward risk-off amid skepticism surrounding the Middle East peace process. Iranian officials have repeatedly stressed that a deal is "not imminent," highlighting deep distrust and unresolved key issues (nuclear program, sanctions, verification). Iran has also accused the U.S. of ceasefire violations in the wake of this week's U.S."self-defense strikes" against missile launch sites and Iranian boats that were reportedly attempting to lay mines near the Strait of Hormuz.

That being said, President Trump said today that negotiations with Iran continue and that the Iranians are “starting to give us the things that they have to give us,” while cautioning that he is not satisfied with the current state of talks and will not rush into a deal. He reiterated that it must be a “great deal” or there will be no deal at all, warned that the U.S. is prepared to “finish the job” militarily if needed.

While oil prices have moderated somewhat this week, persistently high energy prices continue to underpin short- and medium-term consumer inflation expectations, reducing hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts. This is keeping pressure on bonds and supporting a stronger dollar.

The Fed's favored gauge of inflation comes out on Thursday. Median expectations for April PCE inflation are +0.5% m/m and 3.8% y/y, versus +0.7% and 3.5% in March.

A hot inflation print tomorrow could boost Fed rate hike expectations. Currently, Fed funds futures are implying scope for 14 bps of tightening by year-end. Given that these are April numbers, seeing any evidence of cooling is unlikely.

Despite the risks for tighter monetary policy, stocks remain underpinned by exceptionally strong corporate earnings and persistent AI/tech optimism. This growth narrative is outweighing higher-for-longer interest rate concerns for many investors, as the market focuses on future earnings potential rather than near-term policy.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$61.48 (-1.36%)
5-Day Change: -$93.07 (-2.05%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,251.28 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +27.31

Gold has fallen to eight-week lows as Middle East peace negotiations drag on and persistent inflation worries keep yields and the dollar supported. This is keeping the yellow metal under pressure for a third straight week.



We may also be seeing early signs of seasonal selling. Gold has historically shown seasonal weakness, or "summer doldrums," from June to August. June is often the weakest month on average, with studies showing returns around -0.5% to -1.5%. However, the seasonal pattern can be overridden by major macro or geopolitical events. In fact, I expect markets to continue rotating primarily on U.S./Iran diplomatic development.

Support marked by the 200-day moving average and an important Fibonacci level at $4,406.30/$4,401.28 has successfully contained the downside thus far, providing some hope for the longer-term bull camp. However, it would take a climb back above $4,600 to set a more favorable tone within the well-defined range.

On the other hand, a convincing move below $4,400 would shift focus to the next significant Fibonacci level at $4,288.92. Additional intervening supports are noted at $4,352.04 (26-Mar low) and $4,308.83 (24-Mar low).

Wednesday's PCE data, particularly the inflation print, could set the short-term tone. If the sticky inflation theme is reinforced, Treasury yields and the dollar would likely firm, triggering fresh selling in gold. Conversely, softer-than-expected inflation readings could support a modest rebound in gold.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$2.668 (-3.47%)
5-Day Change: -$1.272 (-1.68%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $32.763 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +101.13

Silver has slipped to new lows for the week, weighed by weakness in gold and a firm dollar. Tech/AI optimism continues to provide some underpinning.



Last week's low at $73.153 has contained the downside thus far, keeping more important chart support at $70.893 (29-Apr low) at bay. The 200-day MA at $66.901 remains well protected.

While Middle East headlines will continue to drive markets, tomorrow’s PCE inflation data could trigger new multi-week highs or lows, depending on its implications for Fed policy. Kevin Warsh’s recent ascension to Fed Chair has introduced an additional level of uncertainty, as the trade grapples with his more hawkish history on inflation, potential balance sheet reduction, and expectations for a less interventionist approach to monetary policy.

A short-term close back above the 20-day MA would set a more favorable technical tone within the lower half of this year's broad range. Such a move would bode well for renewed probes above $80 with potential to the 100-day MA at $81.283.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver extended losses overseas before recovering somewhat

Outside Market Developments: Markets begin the week in risk-off mode as traders continue to digest last week's underwhelming summit between Presidents Trump and Xi. The talks resulted in modest progress on trade, including Chinese commitments to buy U.S. Boeing aircraft, soybeans, and addressing U.S. access to rare earths, but yielded no breakthroughs on thorny issues like Taiwan and Iran.

Peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remain stalled, and tensions are on the rise. The U.S. and Israel are reportedly preparing for possible renewed military strikes on Iran as early as this week, with Trump warning that “the clock is ticking” and urging Tehran to make a deal or face severe consequences.

Oil prices remain elevated, stoking inflation concerns and reinforcing higher-for-longer Fed policy expectations. Markets are still trying to get a clear read on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a challenge that will likely persist ahead of the June FOMC meeting. In reality, investors may have to wait until the minutes are released on July 8 for more substantive clues about his policy approach.

During his confirmation hearing, Warsh called for a “regime change” at the central bank — including less talk, a laser focus on the statutory dual mandate, a smaller balance sheet, and updated approaches to measuring and fighting inflation. Consistent with his desire for reduced communication, he is also expected to significantly scale back or potentially eliminate the regular post-FOMC press conferences.

While Warsh is unlikely to formally restrict speaking by other Fed governors or regional bank presidents, the exact shape of the new communication policy remains unclear. He may significantly reduce the volume and specificity of FedSpeak, making statements more opaque or less frequent. If so, markets could see increased volatility around major economic data releases as investors lose the frequent guidance they’ve grown accustomed to.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.19 (0.00%)
5-Day Change: -$166.22 (-3.51%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,203.52 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +30.56

Gold extended to six-week lows in overseas trading on Monday, weighed by ongoing uncertainty on several fronts, and an underpinned dollar. While the yellow metal recovered somewhat during the U.S. session, the short-term tone remains vulnerable.



As noted in Friday's commentary, with gold trading below the important moving averages, and key short-term support at $4,503.02 (4-May low) negated, a challenge of the rising 200-day MA at $4,365.14 must be considered. The $4,420.80 (30-Mar low) and $4,401.28 (Fibonacci) levels provide intervening barriers. 

Global gold ETFs notch their first weekly net inflows in four weeks, albeit a scant 1.8 tonnes. North American investors were the lone net buyers, but interest has been subdued in recent weeks, with U.S. investors in particular showing caution amid higher-for-longer rate expectations and the oil/inflation shock.

The price of gold will continue to swing primarily on Middle East headlines. Renewed optimism about the end of the war is needed to put oil, yields, and the dollar under pressure. A rebound above $4,600 would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, suggesting further consolidation within the broad range is in the offing. 

Monday's intraday high at $4,580.00 marks initial resistance. There is a series of daily highs from the latter half of last week that protect the more important $4,773.13 high from 12-May. Last week's failed challenge of the 100-day MA (now at $4,795.49) reinforces its significance as a key technical barrier on the upside.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.221 (-0.29%)
5-Day Change: -$8.555 (-9.94%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $32.150 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +111.57

Silver is probed briefly below the $75 level on Monday, weighed by heightened Middle East tensions, a lack of clarity on trade with China, and ongoing uncertainty about Fed policy (and transparency) under Chairman Warsh. While the white metal recovered intraday to trade higher on the day, last week's failure from in front of $90 favors further choppy consolidation in the lower half of the range.



The move back below the 20- and 50-day MAs is troubling for the short-term technical picture, although silver appears poised to close near these indicators. A retest of the April low at $70.893 can not be ruled out at this point.

Silver will remain sensitive to Middle East headlines, Fed expectations, and the dollar. A rebound above $80 is needed to set a more favorable tone within the range and suggest potential for another run at $90.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.