Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Friday, July 25, 2025Gold retreats toward the midpoint of the range, weighed by trade optimism
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump adopted a more conciliatory tone after touring the Fed renovation with Chairman Powell, calling it a "great honor." In a TruthSocial post, he urged, "let’s just get it finished and, even more importantly, LOWER INTEREST RATES!"
Trump also seemed to back away from previous threats to fire Powell. “To do that is a big move, and I just don’t think it’s necessary,” Trump said.
“I think we had a very good meeting on interest rates. And [Powell] said to me ... very strongly, the country is doing well," Trump told reporters. “I think he’s going to start recommending lower rates,” Trump added.
The FOMC meets next week and is widely expected to remain on hold for a fifth consecutive meeting. The last rate cut was in December 2024.
There is expected to be some dovish dissent this time around, which could suggest mounting pressure for easing later in the year. However, we may not get that clarity until the minutes are released later in August.
Overall risk appetite remains elevated in anticipation of more trade agreements before the August 1 deadline. If the White House can finalize deals with the EU, Canada, and Mexico, the rest will take care of itself. However, the EU is prepared to retaliate if an agreement is not achieved, which will lead to in-kind U.S. retaliation, according to Trump.
The border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia escalated on Friday with the combatants exchanging heavy artillery and rocket fire. The situation “could escalate into a state of war,” warned Thai Prime Minister Wechayachai.
Durable Orders fell 9.3% in June, inside expectations of -10.0%, versus a revised +16.5% in May ( was +16.4%). Ex-trans rose 0.2%, versus +0.6% in May (was +0.5%).
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$8.39 (-0.24%)
5-Day Change: -$9.06 (-0.27%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,358.18 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +38.08
Gold is under pressure for a third straight session as trade optimism continues to weigh on safe-haven interest. A two-day uptick in the dollar provides some additional pressure. The yellow metal appears poised for a second straight lower weekly close.
The yellow metal is trading just above the midpoint of the range and pressuring the lower limits of the triangle pattern. Selling interest emerged midweek from in front of the 16-Jun high at $3,449.13.
With this level intact, the record high at $3,500 remains protected. The $3,392.11/3,400.00 zone now provides an additional layer of intervening resistance.
Persistent dollar weakness suggests the downside is likely limited from here. It wouldn't be surprising to see the shorts take some profits ahead of today's close. I'm watching the 20-day ($3,345.70) and 50-day ($3,340.91) moving averages on a close basis.
More important support is noted at $3,311.71/51, where last week's low corresponds with the midpoint of the range. Below that, keep an eye on the 9-Jul low at $3,284.61 and the June low at $3,256.02.
The bull camp is may be slightly disheartened by this week's failure to sustain the push to five-week highs above $3,400. However, all we've really seen in the second half of the week is a confirmation that gold remains locked within the range that has dominated since the $3,127.12 corrective low was established on 15-May.
Gold is trading less than 5% off its all-time high, suggesting a level of market resilience. The underlying uptrend is not in any immediate jeopardy, suggesting dips within the well-defined range will continue to be viewed as buying opportunities.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.329 (-0.84%)
5-Day Change: +$0.577 (+1.51%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +42.09
Silver has dropped more than 2% today after the push to 14-year highs earlier in the week stalled shy of the $40 level. The white metal has fallen to new lows for the week and appears on track for a second straight lower weekly close. Copper's retreat from record highs and a slightly firmer dollar weigh.
Nearly 38.2% of the leg up from $35.369 to $39.517 has already been retraced. The next important chart point is last week's low at $37.557. This level is bolstered by the 20-day MA at $37.631 and the halfway back point of the aforementioned move at $37.443.
While the magnitude of the retreat from $39.517 is somewhat of a concern, losses thus far are less than 3.5%. Keep in mind that silver surged more than 4% in the first half of the week, suggesting that selling into the weekend is probably profit taking.
The underlying trend remains bullish. A rebound next week above $38.736/785 would return confidence to the bull trend and favor a true test of $40. Beyond the latter, the $41.610 Fibonacci level would be in play.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
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