Blog posts tagged with 'platinum'

Gold retreats to new lows for the week as hot PPI trims rate cut expectations, lifts dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Producer price inflation accelerated more than expected in July. Headline and core PPI jumped 0.9% m/m, the hottest since March 2022.

Tariffs, especially on imported food like fresh and dry vegetables (+38.9%), were a major driver of the July 2025 PPI surge. Services costs (+2.0%) were also a significant contributing factor. 

Some sources suggest that businesses have been absorbing much of the tariff costs, which has thus far limited the impact on consumer prices. However, PPI data shows tariffs are inflating wholesale prices; at least some of that is likely to be passed along to the consumer eventually.

While Treasuries came under pressure and the dollar firmed, the trade continues to believe the Fed is poised to ease next month. Prospects for a 25 bps rate cut in September were pared to 90.6%, versus 94.3% yesterday, but up from 91.9% a week ago. The implied Fed funds rate for December is 3.8225%, 55 bps lower than the current rate. 

The market has priced out the slight potential for a 50 bps cut that developed after Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments on Wednesday. Bessent subsequently clarified that he was merely saying various economic models suggest 150 to 175 of easing is needed to achieve a neutral rate. "I didn't tell the Fed what to do," he said.

The national debt surpassed the $37 trillion milestone this week. Back in 2020, the CBO projected we wouldn't see $37 trillion until 2030, but COVID-era spending and surging debt servicing costs accelerated the timeline.

The debt will continue to grow after tax cuts and increased spending were passed as part of the 1BBB. Despite the heightened price risks implied by today's PPI data, it seems unlikely that the White House will dial back pressure on the Fed to ease. 

Russian President Putin is slated to meet face-to-face with President Trump on Friday in Alaska. The two will discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine and try to move toward a lasting peace deal.

Putin called U.S. efforts to reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine "quite energetic and sincere." Trump suggested that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy could join him and Putin for a second meeting in Alaska. Zelenskyy has vowed not to cede any territory to Russia.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.39 (-0.01%)
5-Day Change: -$44.30 (-1.30%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,435.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +32.44

Gold has slipped to new lows for the week after the hot PPI print trimmed rate cut expectations for September and lifted the dollar. However, the specter of higher inflation should help limit the downside.



The next tier of support is marked by the midpoint of the three-month range at $3,313.56. Below that, the convergence of the 100-day moving average and the lower limit of the triangle pattern at $3,304.59/$3,300.00 protects the lows at $3,270.50 (30-Jul) and $3,256.02 (30-Jun).

A close above the 20-day moving average at $3,356.99 is needed to set a more favorable tone within the range. Today's Asian high at $3,373.02 must be cleared to allow for renewed tests above $3,400.

The market will continue to digest the PPI data and the implications for Fed policy. While the range in gold continues to hold, an eventual breakout to the upside remains favored.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.182 (-0.47%)
5-Day Change: -$0.075 (-0.20%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.505 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +34.07

Silver retreated from a three-week high of $38.728, as heightened price risks trimmed rate cut expectations. A firmer dollar and easier gold also weigh.



A breach of yesterday's low at $37.862 would put the low for the week at $37.567 in jeopardy. Below the latter, the 50-day MA at $37.268 would attract.

A close above the 20-day MA at $38.096 would ease short-term pressure on the downside somewhat. Overseas gains came within a dime of the previously targeted $38.826 Fibonacci level. Above that, the 14-year high at $39.517 (23-Jul) and $40 attract.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold remains range-bound as heightened risk appetite saps haven interest

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: China was granted another 90-day extension to continue negotiations toward a durable trade deal. The reprieve underpins risk appetite, suggesting the two sides are committed to reaching an agreement, but it also extends the period of uncertainty.

Headline CPI rose 0.2% and core was up 0.3% in July, in line with expectations. The annualized rate was unchanged at 2.7%. While core inflation accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1% y/y from 2.9% in June, and concerns about tariff impacts persist, price risks were perceived to be largely in check.

The rate cut probability for September rebounded to 94.2% from 85.9% yesterday. Fed funds futures are pricing 59 bps of easing by year-end.

Fed governor Michelle Bowman made the case over the weekend for three rate cuts this year. "A proactive approach in moving policy closer to neutral, from its current moderately restrictive stance, would help avoid a further unnecessary erosion in labor market conditions and reduce the chance that the Committee will need to implement a larger policy correction should the labor market deteriorate further," she said.

Risk assets like the extension of the China trade truce and the prospects for the Fed to resume its easing campaign. Optimism about the Trump/Putin summit on Friday, even as Russia steps up attacks in Ukraine, is contributing to risk appetite. U.S. shares are broadly higher, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching record highs.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.22 (+0.07%)
5-Day Change: -$33.38 (-0.99%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,435.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +32.18

Gold remains defensive within the range as heightened risk appetite weighs on safe-haven interest. However, lower yields and a softer dollar provide some underpinning.

 

President Trump confirmed on Monday that "Gold will not be Tariffed!" This calmed concerns that surfaced last week after a Customs and Border Enforcement ruling and coding raised questions.

The retreat below the 20- and 50-day moving averages leaves the yellow metal vulnerable back to the midpoint of the three-month range at $3,313.56. Below that, the 100-day MA at $3,298.37 corresponds with the lower limit of the triangle pattern, and protects recent lows at $3,270.50 (30-Jul) and $3,256.02 (30-Jun).

Nonetheless, gold is holding up pretty well, trading less than 5% off the record highs set in April around $3,500. An eventual upside breakout and resumption of the dominant uptrend remain favored.

Gold ETFs saw net inflows of 14.7 tonnes last week. There have only been four weekly outflows this year, and twelve over the last 52 weeks, suggesting investment interest remains robust. The World Gold Council notes that "global inflows are currently on pace for their second strongest year on record."

In Q2, gold-backed ETFs saved the day according to the WGC. Overall, U.S. demand fell 34% q/q as near-record-high prices weighed on jewelry and bar and coin demand.

UBS projects total gold demand to rise 3% to a 14-year high of 4,760 metric tonnes this year, driven largely by investment flows. “ETF demand is now expected to exceed 600 metric tons for 2025, revised upward from 450 metric tons,” according to the bank.

UBS cited geopolitical risks, fear of sanctions, worries about Fed independence, and ongoing de-dollarization trends as factors underpinning the gold market. Central bank demand has slowed, but remains structurally strong. “Almost all respondents—69 of 73 central banks—expect to increase or maintain their gold reserves,” UBS reported.

A close back above the 20-day moving averages at $3,356.90 would favor further attacks on the $3,400 zone. Successive highs at $3403.42 (08-Aug), $3,435.01 (23-Jul), and $3,449.13 (16-Jun) must all be cleared to allow for a retest of record highs around $3,500 and return confidence to the $4,000 objective.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.092 (+0.24%)
5-Day Change: -$0.123 (-0.33%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.237 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +31.59

Silver is recovering from Monday's losses, boosted by reduced trade tensions and a weaker dollar. The white metal remains lower on the week, trading in the upper half of last week's range.



A close above the 20-day moving average at $38.074 would encourage the bull camp, returning focus to last week's high at $38.475 and the $38.826 Fibonacci level. Beyond the latter, the 14-year high set on 23-Jul at $39.517 and the $40 objective would be back in play.

Today's Asian low at $37.567 now provides an intervening barrier ahead of last Tuesday's low at $37.337 and the  50-day moving average at $37.142. Last week's low at $36.770 and the more important $36.287 low from 31-Jul now look to be well protected.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold retreats on Trump/Putin summit hopes and gold bar tariff uncertainty

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Russian President Putin is slated to meet face-to-face with President Trump on Friday in Alaska. The two will discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine and move toward a lasting peace deal. It is unclear at this point if Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will be included.

Zelenskyy said that Kyiv must be a part of any negotiations. He also vowed not to cede any Ukrainian territory to Russia.

Nonetheless, there is some optimism that the meeting will dial back geopolitical tensions. Risk appetite remains elevated to start the week.

President Trump declared a public safety emergency in Washington, DC, putting the city's police department under federal control. “This has to be the best run place in the country, not the worst run place in the country,” Trump said last week.

The U.S./China tariff truce is scheduled to expire tomorrow. While a trade deal ahead of the deadline seems unlikely, there is an expectation that the parties will agree to another 90-day extension of the truce.

Markets will also be focused on this week's inflation data. Median expectations are for 0.2% m/m increases for both CPI and PPI.

There is currently a high probability of a rate cut in September, but hotter-than-expected inflation readings could swing sentiment back toward a hold. The dovish bias has moderated somewhat since last week, prompting a rebound in the dollar index.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$38.69 (-1.14%)
5-Day Change: -$15.69 (-0.47%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,424.62 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +32.78

Gold retreated into the range as optimism surrounding the Trump/Putin summit sapped haven interest. The trade is also awaiting clarification after confusion surfaced late last week regarding the tariff treatment of certain gold bars. A firmer dollar weighs as well.



In late July, U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued a ruling that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, primarily imported from Switzerland, would be classified under a customs code subject to tariffs, including a 39% tariff on Swiss goods. On Friday, the FT reported the story, stoking market uncertainty and sending gold futures surging to record highs above $3,500.

The White House subsequently said an executive order would be issued in the near future "clarifying misinformation" about tariffs on gold bars. It's not clear to me how the CBP ruling and coding requested by Manfra, Tordella & Brookes, Inc. are "misinformation," but the trade seems convinced gold bars will be exempt from tariffs.

Today's setback puts the yellow metal back around the midpoint of the range-within-the-range at $3,352.57, and the 20- and 50-day moving averages are being pressured. The midpoint of the broader range at $3,313.56 remains protected.

Friday's high at $3,403.42 provides another tier of resistance, along with $3,435.01 (23-Jul high) and $3,449.13 (16-Jun high), ahead of the record high around $3,500. While the tone has been consolidative since the $3,127.12 corrective low was established on 15-May, the underlying trend is still perceived to be bullish.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.536 (-1.40%)
5-Day Change: +$0.329 (+0.88%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.237 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +31.82

Silver slipped to a four-session low, weighed by the setback in gold and a firmer dollar. The failure to achieve a trade deal with China ahead of tomorrow's deadline, and no confirmation of an extension of the truce, also weighs.



Minor chart support marked by last Tuesday's low at $37.337 stands in front of the 50-day moving average at $37.074. A breach of the latter would shift focus to last week's low at $36.770. The $36.287 low from 31-Jul is considered key support.

A rise back above the 20-day MA at $38.064 is needed to return focus to the $38.826 Fibonacci level. Above that, the 14-year high set on 23-Jul at $39.517 would be back in play.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold poised for higher weekly close as tariffs on some bars stoke uncertainty 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Market sentiment remains tilted toward risk-on, despite persistent tariff uncertainties and mounting growth worries. Strong tech sector earnings appear to be carrying the day.

Sweeping tariffs went into effect on Thursday, and President Trump touted that "Billions of dollars in tariffs are now flowing into the United States of America!” Arguably, many of those dollars are coming from within America.

Tariff revenue increased in recent months, but it is believed that U.S. importers were absorbing those levies. In some instances, exporters were making concessions to defray the added costs.

Now that the new tariff regime is in place, concerns have arisen that the burden will be shifted to consumers, potentially stoking inflation. Ultimately, there are many options for covering the additional costs associated with tariffs, and I suspect the measures used will vary widely depending on circumstances.

Key goals of Trump's tariff strategy are to protect current U.S. manufacturers and revive U.S.-based production. He seeks to do this by having U.S. companies repatriate key functions and for foreign companies to build products for U.S. consumers in America. President Trump has gotten substantial commitments of more than $5 trillion to do just that.

President Trump hosted Apple CEO Tim Cook at the White House on Thursday, where an expansion of an already considerable investment was announced. “Today, we’re proud to increase our investments across the United States to $600 billion over four years and launch our new American Manufacturing Program,” said Cook.

Will the ends justify the means? Only time will tell.

Today's economic calendar is empty. The market is looking ahead to next week's U.S. inflation data. Median expectations are +0.2% for both CPI and PPI.

St. Louis Fed President Musalem (centrist) believes the inflationary impact of tariffs will be short-lived. However, Musalem thinks the central bank is still missing on the inflation half of the dual mandate, and therefore, continued patience on restarting the easing campaign is warranted.

Israel is now planning to take full control of Gaza City, garnering condemnation from many quarters. Hamas has vowed "fierce resistance." Hopes for a ceasefire have dimmed considerably.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$10.79 (-0.32%)
5-Day Change: +$30.42 (+0.90%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,417.83 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +38.19

Gold futures surged to record highs above $3,500 in after-hours trading on Thursday, spurred by new worries that 100 oz and kilo gold bars will be tariffed. Spot gold remained comparatively subdued, edging to a new two-week high above $3,400 before retreating.



Spot gold remains entrenched in its range, but appears poised for a second consecutive higher weekly close. Meanwhile, December futures surged to a record high $3,534.10, a $130.86 premium over the spot high of $3,403.42.

In a ruling triggered by a request from MTB, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reclassified 100-ounce and kilo gold bars as "semi-manufactured" gold, making Swiss bars subject to reciprocal tariffs of 39%. These are the bars most commonly used by COMEX.

While Switzerland is a prolific producer of 100-ounce and kilo bars, there are other sources available that may have more favorable tariffs.  COMEX can also use 400-ounce gold bars for delivery under the 4GC futures contract, facilitated by the ACE mechanism that reconciles the size mismatch between large bars COMEX contract sizes.

Right now, the ruling is creating a lot of uncertainty in the gold space. I'm sure the industry is seeking clarity from Customs and Border Protection, and this story will continue to evolve over the next several days, contributing to market volatility.

While spot gold remains confined to the range that has dominated since mid-May, today's probes above $3,400 bode well for tests of important resistances at $3,435.01 (23-Jul high) and $3,449.13 (16-Jun high). Penetration of the latter would bode well for a retest of the record highs. An eventual move to new all-time highs above $3,500 would boost confidence in the previously established $4,000 objective.

On the downside, the 20- and 50-day MAs at $3,355.53/50.18 are bolstered by the lows from this week's previous sessions. A breach of Monday's low at $3,347.21 would suggest potential for a retreat into the lower half of the range below $3,313.56.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.019 (+0.05%)
5-Day Change: +$1.301 (+3.51%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.237 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +40.35

Silver remains generally well bid at the high end of this week's range. While uncertainty in the gold market and a modestly firmer dollar pose headwinds, the white metal appears poised to notch its first higher weekly close in four.



We could see some additional profit taking ahead of the close, but the bull camp won't be terribly concerned by that unless silver closes below $38. The 20-day MA provides additional support at $38.086.

Thursday's two-week high at $38.477 stands in front of the next tier of Fibonacci resistance at $38.826. Above the latter, the 14-year high at 39.517 (23-Jul) would be back in play, as would the longer-term objective at $40.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold edges higher, underpinned by haven interest and weaker dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump's sweeping tariffs of up to 50% went into effect today against dozens of countries. However, news of broad exemptions on chips stoked risk appetite. Stocks rose, led by tech.

The ever-changing landscape of U.S. tariffs since April has created considerable uncertainty. Tariff front-running led to dislocations in trade, economic growth, and price data. Now that inventories have been built and most of the import taxes have been implemented, perhaps the true impacts of Trump's tariff regime will become apparent.

We've certainly seen positive effects:

Tariff revenue reached a record monthly high of $28 bln in July, bringing the fiscal year-to-date total to $150 bln. In just 10 months, gross tariff receipts have far exceeded the previous record high set in FY2022 at $108.2 bln.

According to the White House, President Trump secured as much as $5.1 trillion in promised investments in the U.S., stemming from his tariffs and threatened tariffs. While it remains unclear how much of that will come to fruition, it's an impressive number.

It is widely believed that exporters and importers have been absorbing the cost of tariffs over the past several months. This has kept inflation in check. While there are now considerable pre-tariff inventories to draw down, price risks should start revealing themselves in the months ahead.

If there are to be additional supply chain and labor market disruptions associated with tariffs, those too should become apparent in the coming months. The Trump administration's deportation agenda creates another level of uncertainty for the job market and growth.

Tariff uncertainty has kept the Fed cautious this year, much to President Trump's chagrin. Nonetheless, on the heels of July's weak employment report, the Fed suddenly appears poised to resume its easing campaign in September.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (centrist, non-voter) worries that tariff effects will persist and therefore believes only one 25 bps rate cut is warranted this year. “This question about whether tariffs are a one-time thing, or whether they’re going to be more persistent in their effects and might even cause structural changes, I think is perhaps the most important question that we have today,” Bostic said.

The BoE cut rates today on a 5-4 split vote. The statement reiterated the BoE's "gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint."

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly had a "highly productive" meeting with Russian President Putin and will now brief Ukrainian and NATO leaders. Trump and Putin may meet as soon as next week for a face-to-face discussion on achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine. The prospect of a Trump/Putin meeting dials back the recent uptick in geopolitical tensions and is contributing to today's rise in risk appetite.

Productivity (prelim) rebounded 2.4% in Q2, above expectations of +2.0%, versus a revised -1.8% in Q1 (was -1.5%). ULC (prelim) rose 1.6% in Q2, in line with expectations, versus a revised +6.9% in Q1 (was +$6.6%).

Initial Jobless Claims jumped 7k to 226k in the week ended 2-Aug, above expectations of 222k, versus a revised 219k in the previous week (was 218k). Continuing claims rose 38k to 1,974k in the 26-Jul week from a revised 1,936k in the previous week (was 1,946k).

Wholesale Sales rose 0.3% in June, above expectations of +0.2%, versus a revised -0.4% in May (was -0.3%). Inventories rose 0.1%, versus -0.3% in May.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$4.12 (+0.12%)
5-Day Change: +$86.91 (+2.79%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,381.66 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +37.29

Gold edged to a new two-week high as trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue to underpin the yellow metal within the range. The rebound in Fed easing expectations has weighed on the dollar this week, providing some additional lift.



The yellow metal has been unable to test back above $3,400 thus far, leaving important resistances at $3,435.01 (23-Jul high) and $3,449.13 (16-Jun high) protected. It would take a breach of the latter to clear the way for a run at new all-time highs above $3,500 and return confidence to the $4,000 objective.

On the downside, the 20- and 50-day MAs at $3,353.24/47.94 are bolstered by the lows from the previous three sessions. Monday's low at $3,347.21 is important, as new lows for the week would suggest potential for a retreat into the lower half of the range below $3,313.56.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.573 (+1.51%)
5-Day Change: +$1.575 (+4.21%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +40.18

Silver is trading higher for a fifth straight session and set a new two-week high at $38.477. While the white metal has backed off that high as overbought pressures built, more than 61.8% of the recent decline has now retraced, suggesting the corrective low is in place.



Look for setbacks to attract buying interest around the 20-day moving average. I'd like to see a close above the 2-day at $38.080 today.

Today's earlier high now provides an intervening barrier ahead of the next tier of Fibonacci resistance at $38.836 (78.6% retracement). A breach of this level would clear the way for a retest of the 14-year high set on 23-Jul at  $39.517. Above that, $40 would attract.

Initial supports are marked by today's overseas low at $37.836 and Wednesday's low at $37.696. These protect the more important $37.382/337 zone, where the halfway back point of the recent bounce corresponds closely with Tuesday's low.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.