Blog posts tagged with 'platinum'

Gold and silver start the week on the bid amid heightened haven interest, soft dollar 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Over the weekend, U.S. forces conducted a daring pre-dawn raid on Venezuela's Fort Tiuna, capturing Nicolas Maduro and his wife. The couple was quickly extracted by helicopter to the USS Iwo Jima in the Caribbean before being flown to New York, where Maduro now faces federal charges, including narcoterrorism.

The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting this morning, at the request of Colombia and Venezuela, with strong backing from Russia and China, who condemned the action as a violation of international law and sovereignty. Russia, China, and some of their allies pushed for condemnation of the U.S. "aggression" and called for Maduro's release. The U.S. defended the raid as justified self-defense against narcoterrorism under Article 51 of the UN Charter. No resolutions were passed, with the U.S poised to exercise its veto power.

Global financial markets reacted with relative calm to events in Venezuela. Oil prices were volatile but remained broadly steady to slightly higher. OPEC met briefly on Sunday and is reportedly maintaining its existing output policy amid an anticipated global oil surplus, rather than making any adjustments for Venezuelan developments.

Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, at approximately 303 bln barrels. However, output is dominated by lower-quality, heavier, sour crudes that are more difficult to refine into valuable products like gasoline. That being said, refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast are capable of processing this grade of oil. 

Although there is a fair amount of uncertainty about what happens next, risk appetite has rebounded from recent subdued levels. U.S. stock indices are higher, buoyed by ongoing AI optimism and gains in energy companies on expectations of a Venezuelan oil sector revival. President Trump vowed U.S. oil companies will invest "billions and billions" into the country.

The official VES-USD rate was relatively stable above 300. Information on the more indicative black market rate was sparse, but thought to be around 560. Once the dust settles, the bolívar may garner some strength amid hopes of economic stabilization. Venezuelan government bonds surged as markets priced in hopes of eventual debt restructuring under a U.S.-friendly government, reflecting optimism about unlocking investment despite ongoing political and legal controversies.

Markets will be focused on U.S. labor market data this week. Friday's December nonfarm payrolls report on will be the highlight. Median expectations are +50k. Incoming jobs data may help clarify the policy outlook for the first half of the year.

Manufacturing ISM ebbed to 47.9 in December, below expectations of 48.3, versus 48.2 in November. It was the third straight monthly decline. On the bright side, employment and new orders metrics improved.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$87.01 (+2.01%)
5-Day Change: +$117.65 (+2.72%)
YTD Range: $4310.83 - $4,455.50
52-Week Range: $2,621.42 - $4,549.77
Weighted Alpha: +65.60

Gold starts the week on the bid, spurred by safe-haven interest in light of weekend events in Venezuela, which arguably raise already high tensions with China and Russia. While the dollar index initially rallied to four-week highs, those gains could not be sustained, and now DXY is lower on the day.



With more than 61.8% of recent corrective losses retraced, considerable confidence has been returned to the underlying uptrend. The next tier of Fibonacci resistance is at $4,491.02 (78.6%). A breach of this level would clear the way for a retest of the $4,549.77 record high.

Additional upside targets are noted at $4,624.44, $4,686.61, and $4,719.43. Further out, the $5,000 objective remains valid, with attainment in Q1 deemed likely.

The rebound off the 20-day moving average provides additional encouragement to the bull camp. While further choppy trading may prevail in the short term, the current range low at $4,275.24 clearly defines risk. Intervening support levels are found at $4,420, $4400.00/$4,396.80, $4,333.91, and $4,310.83.

Keep an eye out this week for signs of additional weakness in the U.S. labor market, as that would increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut before June. That in turn would keep pressure on the dollar and underpin gold.

Gold is also likely to continue taking its cues from short-term action in silver.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.969 (+2.70%)
5-Day Change: +$4.991 (+6.92%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $77.153
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $86.637
Weighted Alpha: +188.31

Silver is up more than 5% intraday, garnering revived haven interest, with some help provided by strength in gold and the failure of the greenback to sustain intraday gains. More than 38.2% of the recent retreat has been retraced, boosting confidence that the dominant trend is still very much bullish.



 A breach of the midpoint of the recent range at $78.600 would offer further encouragement to the bull camp. The 30-Dec high at $78.046 provides an intervening barrier.

A short-term rebound above $80 would shift focus to retracement levels at $80.496 (61.8%) and $83.197 (78.6%). Penetrations of these levels would clear the way for a challenge of last week's record high at $86.637. 

Venezuela is not a significant silver producer due to underinvestment and poor infrastructure. Known reserves would be exploitable with sufficient investment, but that would take years, and at this point, oil seems to be the Trump administration's focus. I don't foresee any meaningful dent in silver's persistent supply deficit.

On the downside, minor intraday support at $75 protects the early U.S. low at $74.613. Below the latter, the Asian low at $72.839 looks to be well protected. The $70.562 level, down to $70.000, looks increasingly like the key short-term level that has to hold. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features Manufacturing ISM, Vehicle Sales.

Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.

Gold and silver recover from Monday's sharp selloff

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk appetite has waned into year-end as investors book profits. While precious metals have been particularly volatile, U.S. share prices are displaying some resilience.

US stock markets have traded only modestly lower so far this week, with major indices pulling back from recent record highs in light, holiday-thinned volume. Investors are reportedly locking in gains on big tech names and rotating to less overvalued sectors. 

President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday to discuss a proposed peace framework to end the war with Russia. Both leaders expressed optimism afterward that a deal was "maybe very close" despite persistent sticking points, particularly around territorial concessions in the Donbas region. Markets remain skeptical.

Geopolitical tensions remain broadly elevated heading into 2026. Top risks include the U.S. reshaping of trade/alliance relationships, intensified U.S.–China competition (especially in AI), the ongoing war in Ukraine, the tenuous ceasefire in Gaza, rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, and the latest U.S. saber rattling toward Iran.

Fed funds futures continue to suggest the central bank's easing campaign will be on pause early in the new year. However, the trade continues to price in 50 bps of rate cuts in 2026, with the first 25 bps cut likely to come in June. The minutes from the December FOMC meeting will be released later today, but are not likely to provide any additional clarity.

The dollar index remains defensive, having set a 12-week low last week. The magnitude of the downside retracement has returned considerable credence to the long-term downtrend, despite expectations for lower rates next year, amid mounting fiscal pressures and concerns about debasement.

S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index declined 0.3% to 337.3 in October from 338.3 in September; +1.3% y/y. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.4% in October to a new record high at 436.8, above expectations of +0.1%, versus a revised 435.2 in September (was 435.4); +1.7% y/y, versus +1.8% in September.

Chicago PMI rebounded 7.2 points to 43.5 in December, above expectations of 39.5, versus 36.3 in November.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$52.50 (+1.21%)
5-Day Change: -$105.48 (-2.35%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $4,549.77
52-Week Range: $2,599.23 - $4,549.77
Weighted Alpha: +65.16

Gold has rebounded modestly from Monday's selloff, but price action remains confined to yesterday's range. Heightened geopolitical tensions and a generally soft dollar provide support. Volatility, particularly in silver and the PGMs, is probably tempering bullish sentiment somewhat.



This week's losses are seen as corrective within the dominant uptrend. All of the fundamental factors that have gold on pace for its best year since 1979 are still very much in place, including sustained central bank buying, persistent ETF inflows, expectations of further Fed easing, geopolitical hedging, and a weakening dollar.

Monday's setback to the 20-day moving average is actually a healthy event, although I would have preferred it happen over the course of several sessions.

Today's probe back above $4,400 is encouraging to the bull camp. However, a breach of the halfway-back point of the retreat at $4,429.26 would help confirm the 20-day and Monday's low at $4,308.75 as key short-term support.

A fresh round of lows would suggest potential back to the $4,200 zone before renewed buying interest emerges. Look for gold to continue taking cues from the silver market.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.707 (+3.75%)
5-Day Change: +$4.776 (+6.68%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $86.637
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $86.637
Weighted Alpha: +193.34

Silver is up nearly 7% today as extreme volatility continues. The white metal surged to a record high of $86.637 in Asian trading on Monday, before profit-taking and news of CME margin hikes triggered a sharp selloff in thin holiday conditions.



It's encouraging that silver was able to hold above support at $70.127/$70. However, the magnitude of recent volatility is likely to give pause to traders on both sides of the market heading into year-end. Clearly, that market went too far too fast.

That being said, the fundamentals remain broadly supportive, including strong industrial demand (especially in solar, EVs, and electronics), chronic supply deficits, massive speculative inflows, central bank interest, U.S. rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical hedging, and Chinese export controls slated to take effect on January 1. 

Ideally, I'd like to see a period of consolidation before the market starts testing the upside again. A breach of the midpoint of Monday's range at $78.600 is needed to clear the way for renewed tests above $80. Above the latter, the 61.8% retracement level at $80.496 would attract. New record highs would target $90 and $91.009.

On the downside, intraday supports at $75.133 and $74/$73.873 protect the more important $70.127/$70 area. Penetration of the latter would suggest additional corrective potential toward the rising 20-day moving average, currently around $66.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Good morning. The precious metals are sharply lower in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Index, EIA Data.

Gold, silver, and platinum reach record levels in thin post-holiday trading

Outside Market Developments: Market conditions are thin with most European markets, and London closed for Boxing Day. Risk appetite remains elevated in post-Christmas trading, with investors eagerly anticipating a Santa Claus rally into early 2026.

The standout story today continues to be the blistering rally in precious metals, driven by investment demand, supply tightness, geopolitical risks, safe-haven interest, and the debasement trade. Gold, silver, and platinum all set record highs. Palladium traded above $2,000 for the first time in more than three years.

Despite this week's better-than-expected advance Q3 GDP and initial jobless claims prints, the trade continues to anticipate additional Fed easing in the new year. Fed funds futures are currently implying 56 bps of cuts by year-end 2026, with the first probably not until June.

Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May'26, and President Trump is widely expected to appoint an ardent dove who will facilitate his desire to run the economy hot. Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett are believed to be front-runners amid persistent worries about a loss of Fed independence.

The dollar remains defensive, weighed by monetary policy expectations, divergences with other central banks, and political and trade policy uncertainty. This is prompting foreign investors to rotate out of U.S. assets.



The dollar index set a 12-week low earlier in the week. More than 61.8% of the Sep-Nov corrective rally has now been retraced, suggesting the dominant downtrend is reasserting itself. A breach of the 97.20/12 zone would clear the way for a retest of the 96.22 low from 17-Sep.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$30.33 (+0.68%)
5-Day Change: +$187.66 (+4.32%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $4,532.71
52-Week Range: $2,597.53 - $4,532.71
Weighted Alpha: +75.13

Gold continues to push into uncharted territory, probing above $4,500 in thin post-holiday trading conditions. The yellow metal is poised for a third consecutive higher weekly close.



Gold is now up 74% year-to-date, on par with the post-gold-standard record gains in 1972, 1973, and 1974. The record annual gain occurred in 1979, when the yellow metal surged more than 130% amid soaring inflation, the Iranian Revolution and hostage crisis, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

With the $4,515.63 Fibonacci objective exceeded, focus shifts to the next Fibonacci threshold at $4,686.61. Beyond the latter, a measuring objective at $4,729 and the $5,000 target are looking increasingly attractive with attainment possible in Q1'26.

Initial support is marked by Wednesday's high at $4,525.37, which protects the $4503.80/4500.00 level. Friday's Asian low at $4,469.38 appears to be well protected for now. Focus is likely to remain on buying strategies into next week, although there could be some profit-taking ahead of year-end. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.558 (+3.56%)
5-Day Change: +$8.175 (+12.18%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $75.618
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $75.618
Weighted Alpha: +195.25

Silver is up more than 5% in thin post-holiday trading and on track for its fifth straight higher weekly close. The white metal continues to be spurred by bullish supply/demand dynamics, AI/tech sector optimism, expectations for looser monetary policy next year, a weak dollar, and robust investment demand.



Silver's weighted alpha reading is approaching 200, signalling exceptionally strong and accelerating bullish momentum. I've never seen a weighted alpha reading this high in the metals!

The rise above $75 shifts focus to the next Fibonacci objective at $77.770. Beyond that, $80 would be in play.

Minor intraday support is found at $75.00/$74.92. Below that, Wednesday's high at $72.704 protects more substantial support at $70.229/127. The latter looks to be out of play at this point, although year-end profit-taking remains a downside risk. That being said, I sure wouldn't want to try to pick a top in this market.

PGMs

Platinum surged to new record highs above $2,400, driven by fundamentals similar to those in the silver market. The market is experiencing its third consecutive annual deficit (estimated at 692,000 ounces, or nearly 9% of demand). Production is heavily concentrated in South Africa (~70-80%), which has faced disruptions from political instability, heavy rains, flooding, persistent power issues, and declining ore grades.

On the demand side, President Trump ended Federal tax credits for electric vehicles, and his "drill baby drill" policies have driven down the price of gasoline, dimming the appeal of EVs. Additionally, the EU succumbed to intense pressure from German and Italian automakers, softening its edict for a 100% reduction in tailpipe CO₂ emissions by 2035.

These factors combine to support longer-term demand for hybrids and conventional internal combustion vehicles, although this is likely to occur with ever-higher emission standards and therefore higher PGM loading.

Palladium tested above $2,000 for the first time since November 2022.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver start the last full week of the year with fresh record highs

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets begin the last full trading week of the year in risk-on mode. U.S. equity indexes are higher, despite thin pre-holiday conditions, with tech-heavy sectors leading the way.

Investors have rushed back into AI-related stocks following a short-lived pullback earlier in December. This surge underscores persistent enthusiasm for AI infrastructure and breakthroughs in agentic AI as we approach 2026, even amid elevated valuations.

Last week's evidence of cooling inflation boosted bets for further Fed easing in 2026. Fed funds futures suggest the central bank will likely be on pause in Q1'26, with a 25-bps cut not fully priced in until the June FOMC meeting.

Fed Governor Miran told Bloomberg this morning that he believes recent data warrants a more dovish tilt by his peers. He said he has not yet decided if he will advocate for a 50 or 25 bps cut in January.

Geopolitical tensions in the Western Hemisphere have risen to levels not seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.  Lethal strikes by the U.S. on alleged drug boats, seizures of oil tankers, and a declared blockade on sanctioned oil exports are seen as violations of Venezuela's sovereignty by President Nicolás Maduro and some of his allies. Polymarket puts the probability of President Trump invoking war powers by January 31, 2026, at 22%.

The threat of armed conflict or war between the U.S. and Venezuela is actively contributing to the debasement trade, as it would likely increase deficit spending. The debasement trade involves investors shifting into hard assets like gold, silver, and sometimes bitcoin to hedge against fiat currency erosion, driven by high government debt, monetary easing, and geopolitical instability that heightens flight-to-safety trades.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved to -0.21 in September, versus a revised -0.31 in August (was -0.12). It was the sixth straight negative print.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$70.99 (+01.64%)
5-Day Change: +$128.92 (+2.99%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $4,442.03
52-Week Range: $2,597.53 - $4,442.03
Weighted Alpha: +70.22

Gold was on the bid right from the Asian open, surging to new all-time highs above $4,381.21. The yellow metal was able to extend in London and U.S. trading as well, spurred by surging silver, Fed easing expectations for 2026, a softer dollar, and heightened safe-haven interest.



Waging war is an expensive proposition, so rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela are stoking the already well-established debasement trade. The U.S. national debt is expected to crest the $40 trillion threshold in H2'26, sooner if war breaks out. Annual debt servicing costs are already around $1 trillion, and are expected to be above that on a sustained basis moving forward.

Debasing the dollar is the easiest way to run huge deficits without raising taxes or cutting spending. As always, Congress will take the easy way out: Don't pass a budget and trust that the Fed will continue debasing the dollar to keep the plates spinning.

Today's push above $4,400 lends confidence to the $4,515.63 Fibonacci objective. Beyond that, the long-standing $5,000 objective becomes increasingly attractive.

Intraday support at $4,406.39 protects the previous highs at $4,381.21 and today's Asian low at $4,338.42. More substantial support is defined by last week's low at $4,272.52.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.961 (+2.92%)
5-Day Change: +$4.673 (+7.29%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $69.446
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $69.446
Weighted Alpha: +161.10

Silver surged to yet another round of new record highs, bringing $70 within striking distance. The uptrend in the white metal is relentless.



Heightened safe-haven interest and resurgent confidence in the AI sector – despite sky-high valuations – are adding to the upside momentum. Sure, the market is overbought, but small markets like silver can act irrationally for extended periods of time.

The $68.868 Fibonacci objective was satisfied and exceeded. Sights are now on $70, with today's intraday high at $69.446 providing a minor intervening barrier. Beyond $70, the next Fibonacci level comes in at $73.668.

Initial support at $68.146 extends down to $68. Friday's high at $67.452 protects today's Asian low at $67.161. More substantial support is well protected at $64.673/529.

I am not going to write on Christmas Eve, so the next issue of the newsletter will be out on Friday.

Season's greetings from the Zaner Metals team!


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.