Blog posts of '2023' 'September'

While the dollar has not made a fresh high for the move since last Thursday (6-month high), the currency index remains near upside breakout territory, suggesting potential for a resumption of upside follow-through today.

With treasury yields also breaking out to the highest level since August 22nd overnight and sitting within one point of contract lows, renewed strength in the dollar should not be discounted.

In short, outside market forces continue to favor the bear camp in gold and silver with internal bullish fundamentals incapable of supporting prices or are simply completely absent...[MORE]

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Sep 18 (Reuters) - Gold edged higher on Monday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision this week, where it is overwhelmingly expected to keep interest rates steady, but investors will be watching the central bank's language on future rates.

Spot gold gained 0.1% to $1,925.50 per ounce by 1223 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at $1,948...[LINK]

In addition to a justified short-covering bounce from the oversold condition into yesterday's lows, gold and silver are drafting lift from better-than-expected Chinese economic news overnight.

Apparently, a portion of the gold and silver trade saw this week's US CPI and PPI readings as inflationary, and in turn traders in those markets raised their expectations for a US Fed hike. It should be noted that the inflationary signs in this week's key monthly US inflation reports were interpreted as dovish because excluding food and energy readings supposedly countervailed the headline gains.

However, we think the odds favor a pause although not as high as the CME Fed watch tool suggested this morning at 97%...[MORE]

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Sep 15 (Reuters) - Gold recovered from three-week lows on Friday aided by the dollar's retreat after better-than-expected Chinese data and a stronger euro, while traders focussed on the Federal Reserve's guidance on interest rates next week.

Spot gold was up 0.4% to $1,917.49 per ounce by 1031 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Aug.23 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $1,939...[LINK]

Despite slightly supportive early dollar action both gold and silver are tracking lower perhaps because of concern for the ECB rate decision early today. In the latest survey, the trade attaches a 63% probability of a 25-basis point rate hike by the ECB.

The action in the gold and silver markets yesterday should have been extremely discouraging for the bull camp as the markets dodged what appeared to be a very hot headline US CPI reading without rekindling fear of a US rate hike next week.

In fact, the CME Fed Watch tool before the report had a 93% probability the Fed would be on hold, with the probability of being on hold rising to 97% after the report was digested...[MORE]

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Sep 14 (Reuters) - Gold held its ground on Thursday near three-week lows ahead of an interest rate decision by the European Central Bank as well as U.S. economic data that could provide clues on the monetary policy outlook.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,908.18 per ounce by 1121 GMT, after touching $1,904.93, its lowest since Aug. 25. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,929.60...[LINK]

Today is likely to be a major junction for gold and silver prices with a prevailing bearish tilt likely to be facilitated by financial market action.

However, silver and gold prices could be "saved" with a softer-than-expected US CPI report as that would likely result in lower dollar action and declining treasury yields.

On the other hand, seeing a CPI reading above 0.4% should reignite the rally in the dollar and should lift treasury yields...[MORE]

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