Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

While there was continued divergence between gold and silver yesterday, gold was able to hold its ground in positive territory and finished Thursday with a mild gain.

In contrast, silver was the weaker market as it closed with a heavy loss. The declines in silver were outsized and were likely the result of profit-taking by aggressive Asian buyers over the prior two weeks.

It should be noted that Chinese silver prices reached a significant premium to spot prices recently resulting in Chinese buying international silver and reducing their risk to the weakness in their currency...[MORE]

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With the dollar overnight breaking out to the highest level since May 14th, US treasury yields nearing the highest levels of the month and critical US inflation data from the quarterly PCE report to be released tomorrow, traders should expect an expansion of volatility in gold.

Divergence between gold and silver extended yesterday with silver remaining strong, gold showing weak, and silver adding to its recent show of sector leadership.

However, we suspect strength in the dollar and rising global interest rates undermined sentiment and might have prompted some gold longs to exit ahead of tomorrow's US PCE data...[MORE]

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We expect gold and silver to continue to chop roughly in line with yesterday's price action until the first of two significant US inflation reports is released tomorrow.

However, bullish fundamental information justifies silver's recent relative strength versus gold as reports of heavy Chinese buying of international silver (because domestic prices are significantly higher) suggest a major demand source has emerged.

The bullish theme behind significant Chinese interest is the surging demand for silver in solar energy applications. Along those lines Shanghai spot silver prices last week were 2% above the 13% Chinese import tax or 15% above international silver prices...[MORE]

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While gold and silver are tracking higher early today the charts still favor the bear camp from last week's sharp range-down failures which in turn should make the Thursday/Friday lows key pivot point pricing to start the new trading week.

Key pivot point pricing in June gold begins at $2328.10 and at $30.265 in July silver.

Adding to the negative track in gold and silver prices early today is news that Chinese April net gold imports plunged 38% from March which we think was largely the result of historically high pricing...[MORE]

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What goes up aggressively and makes a chain of new record highs holds the prospect of aggressive corrective action. In fact, if gold finishes the week at current levels, it will have dropped the most in a single week since last October!

In retrospect, the pendulum shift on US interest rate policy back toward the hawks, combined with a higher high in the dollar and a pulse higher in treasury yields, provides a bearish environment for gold and silver into the end of the week.

However, if recent gains were partially the result of flight to quality issues, we suspect some bargain-hunting buying will surface before the close today, but perhaps after additional declines...[MORE]

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While the declines yesterday in gold and silver were blamed on fear of hawkish statements from the last Fed meeting minutes, the declines this morning are the result of a realization of hawkish news from the actual release.

Apparently, the Fed had a debate on whether policy was tight enough to bring inflation down as quickly as was hoped for and some policymakers were disappointed in the economic information they have seen since the March meeting.

Therefore, a minimal higher high for the move in the US dollar adds to the liquidation bias in markets that were significantly overdone into the recent highs...[MORE]

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While today could be a very critical pivot point for gold from a macroeconomic perspective, (US Fed meeting minutes release, 20-year US treasury bond auction, and existing home sales) it should be noted that internal fundamentals remain generally positive.

In fact, gold ETF holdings have now risen for six straight days and silver ETF holdings yesterday jumped by a notable 2.8 million ounces.

In a minimal and perhaps temporary negative development, gold saw a forecast overnight from Commerzbank suggesting gold prices will fall back to $2300 in the second half of this year. Countervailing the bearish $2300 price projection by Commerzbank is a forecast from Morgan Stanley of a target of $2760 an ounce...[MORE]

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PG Comment: I wouldn't consider a retreat to $2300 bearish. That's just 4.6% below the current price. Now if we go the $2760 first...that's another story.

Volatility has expanded and is likely to stay elevated with gold and silver continuing to march to their own drummer.

The dollar and treasuries have held within a narrow range over the prior four trading sessions with a very minimal downtrend bias seen in both markets.

It should be noted that gold ETF holdings are beginning to rise consistently, with last week posting an inflow of 230,227 ounces, and with the addition of 135,000 ounces in just the last two sessions...[MORE]

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With an overnight explosion in prices, gold reached a new all-time high while silver posted explosive gains and the highest price since February 2013!

With the battle heating up in Gaza, a slight shift in the US Fed policy pendulum in favor of the doves last week, and a strong close last week on rising open interest should leave gold in a position to forge even higher all-time highs.

However, the silver market could become the sleeper market as a cheap gold substitute, especially with a surprise upside extension overnight, given silver is significantly cheaper than gold, and with silver still well below all-time high levels above $50 from decades ago...[MORE]

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While the gold and silver markets are showing positive action early today, both markets look to face a small measure of outside market pressure from a tick higher in US treasury yields and a higher high versus Thursday in the US dollar.

While the gold and silver trade were lifted off the recent low by a glimmer of hope for a US rate cut earlier this (the best odd of a cut is 51.1% for the September Fed meeting) the impact from the Fed yesterday shifted slightly negative with at least two members indicating borrowing costs need to stay higher for longer!

Based on overnight Chinese economic data (particularly retail sales came in softer than expected and house prices fell more than expected), the outlook for the Chinese economy and therefore precious metals and commodities was saved by a very unusual and direct Chinese government support for the Chinese housing market...[MORE]

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